On average, the market is higher at the end of the year than the beginning.

I did a quick price-only check, 1985-2023 (39 years).
Of course for total return you also need to add the dividends.

Average price gain from Jan 1 to Dec 31 was 9.3%.
28 years were higher at end-of-year
11 years were lower.

The issue with taking it late in the year is if the market goes down so much that the RMD is a large percent of the diminished account. The 2 largest Jan-Dec losses were -24% and -37% (price-only). The 2 highest were +34% and +31%.
11 of the 39 were +20% or more.

If you take your RMD in-kind by transferring investments from the IRA to a taxable account then it doesn't matter when you do it, because the investment will grow the same no matter which account it is in.

There's a couple of sequencing rules to keep in mind.
You must take your RMD before you can do Roth conversions. (For those who still think Roth conversions are a good idea.)
Qualified charitable distribution (QCD) is only non-taxed if they are RMD.*


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*(controversial & unclear)
"A popular recommendation is to execute a QCD early in the year to avoid any conflict with the “first-dollars-out rule.” The first dollars withdrawn from an IRA are deemed to count toward the RMD. Once an RMD is taken, it cannot be retroactively offset with a later QCD."

Retirement Investing FAQ

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