No. of Recommendations: 21
People are very bad at assessing very low-probability risks, and I think this is an example of one.
To illustrate, a typical Canadian is far more likely to choke to death during the next few years than to see their country taken over by the U.S. and become stateless. It's not probable - in fact, it's exceptionally unlikely. But it is POSSIBLE. And there's something you can do about it! It's perfectly possible to switch to an all-liquid diet, which would eliminate the chance of this improbable, but life-ending, event from happening to you! And it would likely have far less disruption on your life than the steps necessary to emigrate.
It's entirely reasonable for different people to have different coolly considered estimates of the likelihood of remote outcomes: differences don't mean someone is over or under reacting.
Some of my estimates:
Chances that the US claims dominion over additional territory in the next decade: 10-20%.
Chances of a free-and-fair and constitution-compliant US presidential election in 2028: under 90%.
Chances of US citizens perceived as opponents of the administration being jailed without credible evidence: no comment.
Chances that the US will side with the aggressor in a war of conquest, three separate times: 50/50.
Chances that US financial assets or accounts of non-US persons will be subject to large new restrictions like capital controls, punitive capital gains withholding taxes, or forced devaluation or default: 50/50.
Or 100%, if you count the recent rule for listed LLPs: 100% of the sale proceeds of any interest is now deemed as a taxable gain, regardless of cost basis.
Chances of the US fully honouring Article 5 of NATO if called upon to do so: Under 20%.
(noting that the only time it was ever invoked, the country to whom allied support was provided was the US)
Chances that you personally will get meaningfully detained crossing into the US with a valid visa, and/or have that visa revoked: 1 in 5000??
I'm not angry about any of those things per se, it would be like being angry at the weather. But a little disgusted, and a little stressed at the planning and changes needed to adapt. Bullet proofing my portfolio is taking a lot of time and effort.
Jim
