No. of Recommendations: 5
"In this video Microsoft introduced the new Bing integrated with CharGPT. Google investors need to pay attention."
I can't crack open a investment news without hearing about AI. Google just shed 100 billion dollars or so in market cap in two days on what I gather is a perceived fear that MSFT will eat its lunch. This new Alphabet board has spoken more about AI than anything else. Just today I saw a headline that AI is not the new "cannabis" or "meme" market, thereby recognizing that the question must be asked.
From my vantage point, the question isn't "can MSFT create a helpful & legal search + integrated AI function"? Presumably the answer to that question is yes.
The question to me is whether MSFT, or another competitor to Google, can creative an alternative product that (1) has enough distance from Google's offerings (2) for long enough that (3) Google's massive market share in search is meaningfully dwindled away before Google -- which has about 100 billion in the bank to buy itself out of problems -- adequately responds.
To the extent Mr. Market is asking that question, I gather its answer is "yes", Google's lunch will be eaten, at least in part. Hence the massive drop after the embarrassing Bard mistake.
I'm skeptical.
I use Chrome on a regular basis. I have more than one gmail account, including through my alumni network (school's choice). I often search via may various web browsers' address bar, which all currently default to Google. I have a host of shared sheets with colleagues, the majority of which originated by others (never with the question, do you have sheets?, because it is assumed). Rarely does a day go by when I don't see a YouTube video. A host of other daily events in my life default to Google. All this despite me living in an Apple-product household (i.e., phones, laptops, a desktop, ipads, and headphones) and being tied to MSFT via my work software.
And all this before we get to the issue of how many will be convinced to re-discover "Bing" and "Edge", both of which have been the butt of jokes for years. Or how we will rediscover MSFT as a consumer facing brand more generally.
Let's take an example: As of today, Microsoft's marketshare of smartphone shipments, despite its once highly touted efforts to enter the market, is very safely under 1%. Android is at around 70%, Apple with almost all the remainder. With tablets, Apple and Google are at about 50/50, with all competitors again safely under 1%. MSFT continues to dominate the desktop market. Further, all of these basic ratios of market share have been very sticky for years.
So I'd like to hear a convincing theory of change. How does MSFT conquer search when the consumer facing side of the digital world is almost all Google & Apple? Apple decides to play kingmaker? Or?
