Post #12068 by AdrianC on the Berkshire Hathaway board

Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)

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I remember reading this article from 2018 (that's seven (7) years ago, if you're counting):

Bracing Yourself for a Possible Near-Term Melt-Up
(A Very Personal View)
Jeremy Grantham
https://www.gmo.com/globalassets/articles/viewpoin...

Among his conditions:
Right party in power (just sayin’)
...
The data speaks for itself. Its statistical significance is another matter entirely.

Extreme expensiveness
At last, we come to value. Extreme overvaluation plays a huge role in bubbles breaking: It is a
necessary precondition. The more overvalued, the merrier. But, for judging the extent that bubbles
will overrun fair value and for timing the break, value, sadly, is largely irrelevant. Thus, it is a necessary
but absolutely not sufficient condition. Exhibit 13 shows how handsomely the current cycle already
passes the necessary condition

Grantham has been banging that same drum for a while now. One day he will be correct.
Chris Bloomstran's latest letter devotes many pages to the bubble.
Buffett has a more-than-normal amount of cash...

7 years of SPY (+160%) & BRK.B (+145%):
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?SPY,BR...

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