No. of Recommendations: 9
In Bloomberg.com's recent video interview of Thomas Hoenig, he references "F1C" as a measure of the dollar money supply -- in context, it sounds like he's referring to M1 or maybe M2. That's a stumper, I have no idea.
It sounds like it might be a line number in a Fed data release?
The two figures I watch are the money supply using Divisia M3, and (lately) the MCT inflation figure.
Divisia M3 is up a pretty modest 2.1% in the year to June.
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data....Changes in this figure have had a history of leading where inflation goes next, rather unsurprisingly.
e.g., it spiked in April 2020, long before the inflation pop showed up. Then it was actually year-on-year negative (shrinking money supply) Dec 2022 through Feb 2024, giving a strong indication that the inflation spike was likely to end soon.
MCT inflation is up 2.06% in the year to June.
https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/mct#--:...Given that the two figures match and one tends to lead the other (at least when there is a big change), I infer that things are pretty stable right now, and except for some product- or service-specific things which may crop up, a dollar will likely be pretty stable in purchasing power in the next little while. I have lowered my one-year-forward inflation expectations again. At the moment this matters because T-bills are or will soon be gradually losing their once-in-a-generation offer of a meaningful real return.
Jim
