No. of Recommendations: 3
Couple things: How he performed vis a vis the national numbers isn’t really relevant, I don’t think, But the 3.5% margin is. Then again, that doesn’t seem so huge give the confluence of things that will be happening in this election.
The reason his performance versus the national numbers is relevant is because campaigns have to allocate scarce resources, and the Presidential campaigns are trying to get to 270 electoral votes. So they'll try to prioritize the states that are more vulnerable than typical for their opponent. Florida's a state where Trump did about 8 points better than his national average, which means it's a much Trumpier-than-typical state, so it shouldn't be as much of a priority for Biden.
IOW, if Florida is in play then it means that Biden's doing very well in WI, MI, PA, AZ, and a host of other states that are closer than Florida - and Biden's probably better off putting resources into those states to make sure he wins rather than trying to chase a state with a greater pro-Trump lean.
It is a “female” question, and women are already skeptical of Trump, so I have hope.
Add to that the marijuana question which probably means more to younger men and women, and I’m guessing that “younger” numbers will be higher than usual, probably higher than the last election.
Certainly it helps - Trump is certainly worse off with those issues on the ballot than not. But I don't think it's enough. If marijuana gets 20% more 18-29 year-olds to vote in the next election than 2020 (which would be insanely high, no pun intended), that would mean another 300K votes...but if the split the same 60/40 Biden/Trump ratio as last time, that's only an extra 60K votes for Biden (because we're a fairly older state). In a state he lost by almost 400K votes. And as for women, there's already a pretty decent-sized gender gap in turnout rates and we already skew very heavily female - in 2020, the Florida electorate was already 55/44 female to male. Again, not a good thing for Trump that abortion is on the ballot.
I don’t know Florida politics, but it’s beyond imagining that Rubio doesn’t cruise to victory. Incumbency almost always wins (which is why I support limits. I know you don’t, but as the saying goes you’ll see it my way eventually because you’re smart and I’m right.)
This cycle is Scott, not Rubio - and Scott's the weaker candidate. I think he's the heavy favorite to win - I just think that if there's a tilt from the amendment ballot items, Scott's more vulnerable to lose the state than Trump. So that might keep resources in the state at the outset, if Scott's running close, which might draw Biden to take more of a flier.
Also, term limits bad.
