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*                         7/17     7/24     7/31     8/7/23
S&P 500 Index             4505.42  4536.34  4582.23  4478.03
Trailing 12 month PE      25.17    25.17    25.44    24.76
Trail Earnings yield      3.97%    3.97%    3.93%    4.04%
Forward 12 month PE       21.70    21.68    21.84    21.27
Fwd Earnings Yield        4.61%    4.61%    4.58%    4.70%
90 day tbill yield        5.49     5.50     5.52     5.54
10 year tbond yield       3.83%    3.84%    3.96%    4.05%
Arezi Ratio               1.38     1.38     1.40     1.37
Fed Ratio                 0.83     0.83     0.86     0.86

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 51%
stocks, 49% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is above its 200DMA. - Bullish
We are in the May-Oct part of the year. - Bearish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is inverted. - Bearish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 21%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 69%.

Elan

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