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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
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Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝 GOLD
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Number: of 21944 
Subject: Re: OT Fed/Macro/Rates
Date: 06/28/24 3:23 PM
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The reason deflation is so hard to eliminate is that it trains people (or businesses) to delay purchases for as long as possible. If you are considering buying a new truck, if your delay the purchase a year, you can get the truck cheaper. It becomes a death spiral. Consumers delay purchases, so businesses cut back on production and lay people off, this causes consumers to buy even less (they need to save because they might lose their jobs). It feeds on itself.

I've read this before as well but never found it super compelling...

Bear in mind that folks in deflationary economies don't just delay purchases, they also defer all deployments of their capital including investments. Why invest or take any risks at all if the cash in your mattress is going to be worth more a year from now anyway? And this is as true of companies as it is of individuals. With no risk taking or capital expenditures, things get pretty slow.

I don't understand why companies would be required to pay their employees less each year in normal economic times. Wouldn't the main driver of deflation be productivity improvements allowing more goods to be produced for less, resulting in lower per unit prices?

Usually this is not anything like normal economic times. In times of deflation, things are pretty broken. The usual proximate cause is a deficiency of demand. Goods stacking up, all companies have more employees than needed. So yes, you see lower per unit prices, but it's because of companies' desperation to sell something, not because of productivity gains. It tends to be long and slow and drawn out, not a crisis, but like any chronic illness it can be as serious as a sudden crisis illness.

Jim
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This community has written 21,448 posts about Berkshire Hathaway. The article-length ones it recommended most:
BRK: Why Not XOM? · 62 recs · 2024
Second quarter comments · 60 recs · 2023
Berkshire's Profit Contributors · 57 recs · 2023
Summary of 2Q 2026 · 54 recs · 2026
3Q Summary · 53 recs · 2024
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