Invite your colleagues and friends interested in investing to enter the gates of Shrewd'm, for they will thank you (and their larger pockets!) later.
- Manlobbi
Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy
No. of Recommendations: 0
will brkb test 480 again? Does Uncle see any value, yet?
No. of Recommendations: 16
$480 sounds a bit rich to me.
Back of the envelope examples
Book/share growth nominal 10.4%/year and 1.4x March 2026 book would be a price around $477 around Q2 next year.
Book/share growth nominal 6.1%/year and 1.4x March 2026 book would be a price around $454 around Q2 next year.
Those aren't what you'd call forecasts, but they seem to be in the general range of what would be pretty usual.
(The lower 6.1% growth rate example is because it doesn't currently look like this will be a banner year for earnings or stock returns in general)
It would not be at all surprising to see some trading below $430. I wouldn't expect buybacks to resume above $460ish, if then.
Jim
No. of Recommendations: 0
“ It would not be at all surprising to see some trading below $430. I wouldn't expect buybacks to resume above $460ish, if then.
Jim”. We agree, but, he might be buying things other than brkb? Oil space? Obviously at 56 a barrel they aren’t going too, drill baby drill.
No. of Recommendations: 1
BRK price had experienced 50% drop two or three times in the past 25 years. Why not $300 this time?
No. of Recommendations: 11
he might be buying things other than brkb?
Sure. Though I suspect he is not in any big hurry.
If I had to make a wild guess, it would be international booze companies. They are generally extremely good bets over the very long haul, but down a huge amount because of their highly visible exposure to tariffs. (and worries that the world will stop drinking).
Diago DGE:LSE, 34% off its high. Not doing great lately, in a number of different ways. 3.9% div.
Campari CPR:MIL, 49% off its high. 1.2% yield.
Pernod Ricard RI:PAR, 46% off its high Least exposed of these four to US tariffs. 5.3% div.
Remy Cointreau RCO:PAR, 62% off its high. Most exposed of these four to US tariffs. 4.6% div.
Jim
No. of Recommendations: 1
"he might be buying things other than brkb?
Sure. Though I suspect he is not in any big hurry."
To be serious for a moment, months ago I suggested that Buffett expedite his gifting so the foundations could sell 5-10 billion brkb at 510 plus into the rally. For the first time in 30 years, I'm starting to worry about his thinking. Can you explain WHY he didn't sell into brkb 510 plus, before I ask RW or the Brooklyn investor why Buffett didn't try to prevent the run to 535, thank you.
No. of Recommendations: 0
' Berkshire Hathaway trades at a little more than 1.6x book value right now, using the end-of-Q4 book value number. Book value has likely declined a bit since then; thus the current book value is likely a bit higher than that. Considering where Berkshire Hathaway traded in the past, that is a rather elevated valuation—shares oftentimes traded at 1.2x to 1.5x book value.
So while Warren Buffett has positioned BRK well to benefit from the current sell-off, that doesn't mean that BRK itself is a bargain today—instead, it looks fully valued. In case that changes and shares come down during the current bear market, BRK could be an excellent investment, but at an above-average valuation, relative to its historic valuation range, I do not think that BRK is a must-buy today.'
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4773941-berkshire...
No. of Recommendations: 1
Would be very careful about buying any alcohol related companies. Hemp drinks (at least in the USA) are slowly but surely increasing their market share. In a nutshell they give one the "buzz" without the hangover. Very popular with the younger demographic. Veryearly used to occasionally ask, "What's the trade?" (i.e. how can one invest/profit from it?). I don't have one yet....right now the market is a number of smaller regional based companies. Publicly traded Jones Soda has entered the market but as of right now is a bit too speculative for me...a "crapshoot".
No. of Recommendations: 15
Would be very careful about buying any alcohol related companies. Hemp drinks (at least in the USA) are slowly but surely increasing their market share.
Hmm, I think any trend lasting that many thousand years is likely to keep going a while yet. Longer than I will, anyway.
Perhaps hundreds of thousands of years...there are quite a few animals that will seek out fermenting fruit to get tipsy on it. I am one such.
That being said, it is entirely reasonable to expect average volumes to be lower than they were. Internationally the trend is more about young'uns abstaining, not switching to weed products. Some observers think that may be a bit related to the fact that the young folk are pretty broke, and they might spend a little more later. Nothing like staring to go bald to make you feel like you could use the comfort of a nice scotch.
Jim
No. of Recommendations: 7
Ole dealrakers view:
The value of US business is down far more than the market has fallen.
Sigh; frown; gulp; eye roll; close eyes and dream of something different.
No. of Recommendations: 3
Ole dealrakers view:
The value of US business is down far more than the market has fallen.
Me too. The drop so far is rational. It hasn't dropped more because many investors still think this is temporary.
No. of Recommendations: 10
The value of US business is down far more than the market has fallen.
...
Sigh; frown; gulp; eye roll; close eyes and dream of something different.
Were you dismissing the notion?
I dunno, seems like a reasonable assumption to me. The average S&P 500 firm is trading at around the same level it was at the start of last year, but the future business environment isn't nearly as good as it was then.
The forward P/E is still 4.5% higher than its ten year average even though that doesn't yet include any outlook downgrades from the last week's developments.
Jim
No. of Recommendations: 7
It hasn't dropped more because many investors still think this is temporary.
Hmmm, their belief that it's temporary may itself be temporary.
As I mentioned some time back, I bought a few BRK puts a while back for fun. I recently closed those for a tidy profit, and instead bought puts against US small caps. They always get whacked hardest when poop hits the fan. If such poop does fly, it would be nice to have something "up" to feel chipper about.
Any other thoughts on what might plummet? I note that despite the recent little dip of 5-6%, JNK is at the same price as it was 1.5 to 2.5 years ago. That seems wrong, somehow.
Jim
No. of Recommendations: 1
The value of US business is down far more than the market has fallen.
...
Sigh; frown; gulp; eye roll; close eyes and dream of something different.
Were you dismissing the notion?
I read it as affirming rather than dismissing. What can you do? "Sigh ... and dream of something different."
