Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) ❤
No. of Recommendations: 9
No. of Recommendations: 11
I saw the same article and was going to mention it, though probably on a different board. Nice summary in most respects.
Two notes---
(1)
He things we are not yet in the end game, as "To be 1999 again, the IPO market needs to ignite, with my gardener telling me how much he’s making every day."
FWIW, this is the top headline on Yahoo finance this morning:
IPO's surge in August with companies 'striking while the iron is hot'
So maybe we are a bit closer than it might first appear?
(2)
The part of his article that left me a bit queasy was this bit of advice...
"That’s because winners become ever more concentrated. So they are easy to pick — even if it feels wrong to own them. Then, as soon as the bubble bursts — don’t worry, you’ll know — switch to passive funds again.
Sometimes it is hard to get out of bubbly stuff when the getting is good. Either picking the wrong general time frame to sell out, or waiting till the exit gets crowded and prices are in free fall. I tend to agree with him in general, but it isn't exactly a safe approach.
: )
Jim
No. of Recommendations: 7
Agree with Jim.
I add: Back in the 1990's I remember Abbey Joseph Cohen's getting popular and respected, her wild success at simply continuing to state that big cap was going higher...and higher. It did, it did some more, and then big cap went up even more.
And in the end about the time she began her stance? Yes all the way back to the levels when she began getting popular - well that was where the big cap fell to.
No. of Recommendations: 3
Abbey Joseph Cohen's getting popular and respected...
I remember her! And Henry Blodget IIRC. Both continued their media appearances even after the 2001-3 bear market, which is how I realized that CNBC is an entertainment channel and not news.
Cramer was OK, always the entertaining village idiot, amplifying the prevailing conventional wisdom, jumping any which way depending on the day.
No. of Recommendations: 0
An interesting article, but I felt there was even more wisdom in the comments. A very rare occurrence.
No. of Recommendations: 5
In the context of - to quote Jim, the master of creating such ingenious terms - "bubbly stuff" interesting "The Economist" article about Palantir:
https://archive.ph/ZhIUDMhm, with Berkshire not as (measured on it´s own history) clearly too expensive as a while ago and most of my puts sold, maybe a new short idea (though after the firm with the unspeakable name that starts with "T" I am a kid who experienced that touching hot plates can burn one)?
No. of Recommendations: 3
In the context of - to quote Jim, the master of creating such ingenious terms - "bubbly stuff" interesting "The Economist" article about Palantir
You gotta love that article's tagline, "At Orthanc's peak."
Sorry, you'll need to read The Lord of the Rings to get that one, or at least watch the movies. ❤️
No. of Recommendations: 1
Sometimes it is hard to get out of bubbly stuff when the getting is good. Either picking the wrong general time frame to sell out, or waiting till the exit gets crowded and prices are in free fall. I tend to agree with him in general, but it isn't exactly a safe approach.
I have the same sense about AI related stuff. This feels like the early stages of the tech bubble, but for AI. If you are in it for a year or three, you don't have to be right that AI is the greatest thing since fire, you just have to be right that the companies that can afford it are going to spend a few trillion trying to find out just how good AI can be over the next few years. The companies that sell supplies into the AI supercomputer industry are selling the mining supplies into the gold rush. The people panning for gold don't have to get rich for the people selling the pans to get rich.
The early stage of the bubble is nice. All you have to do is identify early the stocks which will be recognized to be part of the bubble.
Oh yeah, and the other thing you'll have to do right especially if it happens soon-ish is identify when to get out. And you are right, that is not exactly a safe approach.
But damn if you can get it even close to right, you could make some money. Famous last words I suppose, and not something Buffett would ever say.
R:
