LOL!

To quote 2 famous investors - one World Renowned and one legend from here

(1) Buffet : Just own the Vanguard 500 -- leave the rest to others.
(2) Jim ( Mungo) : Point of investing is not to have fun - but make money!

(3) Buffet : Rule # 1 - Never lose money.
Rule # 2 - Always follow rule #1

Jim believes in Mr Buffet - and he actually does BTD thru his own valuation models on BRK.


No - dont try to have fun - I come from a culture where we believe in destiny - yeah if its in yours - you can have a lot of fun and make great investments like Mr Buffet.
The markets are typically set up to not to have a fun place - but more make fun of you - unless you have nerves of steel.

Because - most research points to investing success = Contrarian strategies. In some sense Mr Buffet made his name thru this and great management!
While Momentum works too ( Asness's work) - infact most strategies you see here on this board are of this variety. Saul's was an EXTREME example of the same - it was predicated on a strong economy - and relied one and ONE ONLY metric - Hyper Sales Growth ( or was it revenue??)

What they missed is that how Wall Street was taking that and translating it into Valuation. ( predicated on DCF - with the discount rate being the current 10 yr - and assumed to be static - for all practical reasons. I never even heard anyone using the forward curve!)

Both hyper sales ( GDP/Economic Outlook) and future valuation are dependent on the Rate environment - especially in my view - when the genie awakens - suddenly people start to pay attention to stuff like forward curve etc and precipitate the problem. Now that the forward is inverted - the recession probabilities makes everyone run for more cover

Personally, I am very very conservative - but I mostly try to work within the BCC parameters and knowledge imparted by folks like Jim, Zee et al.

Have fun here -- and stay focused on investing.

ALL THE BEST!

Mechanical Investing FAQ

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