Post New

As we've discussed before, ICE has never had the funding to conduct the level of interior enforcement and deportation that the Trump Administration has wanted. Despite claims to the contrary, there really was a structural limit to what ICE could do with the millions of folks that have been in the country for a while. It wasn't really that prior Administrations (GOP and Democratic) were turning a blind eye - they were just enforcing up to the limits of the resources that Congress was appropriating for that purpose.

Anyway, that gave rise to John Thune's suggestion to have two reconciliation packages - one that contained a ton of money for border enforcement that could get passed quickly, while the more difficult measure with all the tax and spending issues would inevitably take more time. The GOP passed on that approach. So now the pinch point of constrained resources is showing:

Trump’s vow to quickly remove millions of undocumented immigrants from the country has faced a number of roadblocks. The administration has run up against a bogged-down immigration court system as well as challenges with detention space and staffing, spreading ICE agents thin as they work to deport 1 million undocumented immigrants this year — four times as many as last year.

“We should understand that until they have that money and can start to spend that money, no one should really think that they can start raising the deportation numbers that much,” said Michael Kagan, director of the University of Nevada, Las Vegas Immigration Clinic. “They need that money, and that is the first step for expanding detention space.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/05/05/trump-dep...

The money matters. Without vastly more resources, you can't have vastly more deportations. ICE claims it's deported about 65K people since Trump took office, which prorates to "only" about 300K for the year - now where close to what Trump has promised. ICE needs to have that more money to up their deportation numbers, and it will take them time to spin up even when they get that extra money. A Thune "small unassuming bill" on just border and energy could have been passed in early March, while the BBB might linger on deep into the summer. Which is going to make it very difficult for the Administration to put up large deportation numbers prior to the midterms. They'll be able to get the rate pretty high leading into late 2026, but it's going to be hard for them to have deported even a million people over their first two years, let alone annually.

It wasn't really that prior Administrations (GOP and Democratic) were turning a blind eye - they were just enforcing up to the limits of the resources that Congress was appropriating for that purpose.

A nit: It turns out there was always plenty of funding for securing the border, as we've seen. This is correct on the deportation part of it.

A Thune "small unassuming bill" on just border and energy could have been passed in early March, while the BBB might linger on deep into the summer.

Unlikely.

The only reason we're getting One Big Beautiful Bill - and the reason why the GOP went this way - was to put the democrats in the position they've put the Republicans in many times: either vote for cloture and pass a budget framework or shut the government down. So Schumer took the obvious way forward and voted for cloture.

There's no universe where a 'clean' bill that increases ICE and opens up things like energy exploration goes to the Senate by itself and gets 7-9 democrat votes. Won't ever happen.

The democrats are going to give Trump nothing the next 4 years; they'll only vote 'yes' on something if backed into it.

The only reason we're getting One Big Beautiful Bill - and the reason why the GOP went this way - was to put the democrats in the position they've put the Republicans in many times: either vote for cloture and pass a budget framework or shut the government down. So Schumer took the obvious way forward and voted for cloture.

That's completely wrong. This is a reconciliation bill. And Thune's bill would have been as well. They're not subject to the filibuster. Cloture has nothing to do with it. There has not been, and will not be, a cloture vote on the OBBB.

A party can pass up to two reconciliation bills per Congress (one for each year). The choice the GOP had was either to draft two separate reconciliation bills (neither of which was subject to the filibuster) or a single larger bill that had everything in one package. They chose the latter. The consequence of that is that increased funding will not start flowing to ICE until after July 4th at the earliest, and probably later. Which means most of 2025 will pass without increased funding, and therefore without much of an increase in deportation rates.

It turns out there was always plenty of funding for securing the border, as we've seen.

Send the worst of the felons to El Salvador. Start with Felon 35. If you won't deport documented felons, then everything is just you blowing ever-more hot air.

Post New

US Policy FAQ

---

Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.