Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
Best Of FKBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd
Search
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Search
Best Of FKBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd


The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again
Investment Strategies / Falling Knives
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (10) |
Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝 GOLD
SHREWD
  😊 😞

Number: of 1166 
Subject: Re: BFH - why so unloved?
Date: 10/31/23 2:06 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 12
Here's an idea to mess with your head.

Still not cheap enough for ya at a forward P/E under 2?
Have a look at writing cash-backed puts.

e.g., you can get a premium of $4.30 for a June $27.50 put.
The stock is at $27 on the dot.


You have to put at risk $23.20 per share to the deal, your breakeven if assigned.

So, the two outcomes are:
(1) You get a cash income of $4.30 on $23.20 at risk = 18.5% return = 28.9%/year annualized rate (not compounded, just linear).
(2) You get the shares for $23.20 apiece. Earnings next year are estimated at $14, so you get a forward earnings yield of 60%.
Presumably that earnings figure could be off by a mile and the earnings yield would still look pretty good.

If one is happy with both those outcomes, the only remaining questions are tail risks (will the company go pop?) and whether this is the best allocation of funds you can spot today.

The problem here is that, given how cheap they are, there is a decent chance that the pessimism might end and the stock might really pop suddenly.
So you might have to close the position early and take most of the profit in a smaller period of time, then decide what the best position from there might be depending on the size of the pop.
The flip side is that you make an excellent rate of return so long as the pessimism lasts and the stock price stays in the dump.
I don't usually write puts just once...I pick a ticker and do it over and over for as long as I like the value proposition.

Jim

Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
Print the post
Members reply directly to mungofitch here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 1,155 posts about Falling Knives. The article-length ones it recommended most:
FKA: DG · 25 recs · 2023
MTD – A Masterclass in Un-Swiss Capital Allocation · 17 recs · 2026
Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) · 15 recs · 2026
Coloplast (CLPBY) · 12 recs · 2026
TSLA · 12 recs · 2025
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (10) |


Announcements
Falling Knives FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Best Of FK | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds | Open Questions | Moving a community