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I'm still thinking we have a good chance of pulling off a win, but that depends on the swing states.

SNIP 2024 Election Environment Favorable to GOP

Party affiliation, GOP issue advantages, economic pessimism among key factors

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Nearly all Gallup measures that have shown some relationship to past presidential election outcomes or that speak to current perceptions of the two major parties favor the Republican Party over the Democratic Party. Chief among these are Republican advantages in U.S. adults’ party identification and leanings, the belief that the GOP rather than the Democratic Party is better able to handle the most important problem facing the country, Americans’ dissatisfaction with the state of the nation, and negative evaluations of the economy with a Democratic administration in office. SNIP

Data at the link:

https://news.gallup.com/poll/651092/2024-election-...

And yet fivethirtyeight has Harris up by 3 points nationally.

Not that I put much stock in polls. They are right just as much as they are wrong. Really no better than random chance, it seems.

And yet fivethirtyeight has Harris up by 3 points nationally.

Not that I put much stock in polls. They are right just as much as they are wrong. Really no better than random chance, it seems.

Well, when Dope comes back and accuses us of only posting favorable polls, remember this. Yes, I watch 538 too. :)

In a tribal society. In a mosaic, not a melting pot. In a place where more and more stick to their own ghetto and media and social silos, things are sometimes way too close to make the polls that reliable.

*giggle*

It makes governance and even civil society less than possible.

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