Despite the closeness in the polls I still think Harris wins.
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I'm not plugged in like before so I don't feel confident in my knowledge on polls - the polling companies - who is using what method. I used to be full geek and I remember calling W/Kerry's electors and popular vote 8 months before that election. I used to love the game that much.

What experience I have as an armchair political wannabe: It "feels" like it's going to Trump. While Club 401K and the investor class see an feel the good economy, they are so woefully out of touch with a majority of the country who - right or wrong - feels that things SUCK. Perception is reality. So on that - inflation and immigration I 'feel' it's going Trump. Some of the polls are showing that.

Reasons I agree with you on Harris win:

1.)Organization. We have Trump and his Tweets and rallies.

SHE is owned by entities that are smart : Pelosi, Obama, Schumer, Cheney, Bush. Goldman Sachs. Big Defense and other elements of military-industrial complex. I *gotta* believe her leash-holder's ground game and get out the vote is better. Heck both sides are texting and doing the CRM software bullshit but from what I've seen - Dems are targeting better.

2.)Abortion

Whether we agree or not - the threat of abortion bans, Roe overturned has created a HUGE motivation for all sorts of women. That came out in 2022...and I fear it will in 2024.

3.)Only 10% sure of this one. REVERSE-REVERSE BRADLEY EFFECT?

Some would tell pollsters "Biden" or "Hillary" and then secretly vote Trump. They were scared to be called racist. Or felt guilty for voting Trump and this has always helped trump BUT.......

Between Abortion bans. "let's take away ObamaCare" Social Security, Medicare.....I wonder, are there people who DESPISE Liberalism as a brand-name, and can't stand Harris---but feel like she will protect their interests while Republicans will butcher them? I'll point to myself as an example:

Was a 2%'er for a good part of my life - I am not any longer but hey, whatever, still blessed and feel like I live well. I am scared of ObamaCare getting screwed with and I really prefer Social Security not be cut. I planned - I think on 20% CUT as part of my financial plan but man - if it is cut less or not at all? I'd just love that. Medicare? I want it well funded. I want to have good doctor and hospital choices down the road. School funding. Special end funding - important to me.

BUT "brand name" I've been a Reagan guy since grade school and Conservative as an adult. I can't STAND the "blame America" "America sucks" mentality on the Left. Kamala Harris? What a lightweight and represents segments of culture I can't stand. SO..... I used "I'm not gonna vote" as a mechanism to where I'm not ashamed of voting Harris - but at least not cutting my throat with Trump. It's only the Smug Snob 401K'ers here that make me want Trump to win - well - that and The Euro Trash across the pond and not wanting nuclear war.

If a pollster called me - I'd say "Trump" whether I meant it or not.. I wonder if there's people out there who are with us on so many things - but are honestly worried about doctor access, abortion access, social security cuts, etc. Are they ashamed to say HARRIS - but secretly- they'll vote Harris and then do locker-room-talk and tell their social circle they voted Trump?

Again this one is outlandish even for me -----but I can't reject it totally.

All I know is that IF despite this Trump wins - the Left needs to go Bill Maher ---and Bill Clinton - like, now. As in now. Or we're going to be run by the likes of Boebery and Greene - ignorant people for a decade to come.

Kemp, Sununu, Shapiro, Beshear - there's people out there for later when this smoke clears.