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I keep giggling and laughing it's hilarious. Just the whole thing.

What's even more hilarious is that...we're putting reciprocal tariffs in place. Meaning, all these other outfits are charging us and arm and a leg for US goods while insisting they get free access to our market.

In what universe is that acceptable?

As I write this, the Israelis just dropped all tariffs on US goods. And then there's this:

https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/190744548544864716...

WOULD YOU LOOK AT THAT! Big talker Ontario Premier Doug Ford, after vowing to inflict "pain" on Americans, is suddenly open to dropping all tariffs on the U.S.

Happy Liberation Day.

"We’d be willing to take those off tomorrow."

What's even more hilarious is that...we're putting reciprocal tariffs in place. Meaning, all these other outfits are charging us and arm and a leg for US goods while insisting they get free access to our market.

It's a bit more complicated than that.

For example, if you look at the chart that explains the various tariffs, the European Union is listed as having "Tariffs charged to the U.S.A." of 39%. Except, however, that the EU does not charge a tariff of 39% on goods from the U.S. - it charges an average tariff of about 5.2%. Which is where the fine print comes in - Trump's chart calculates tariffs as "including currency manipulation and trade barriers."

Europe isn't charging us an arm and a leg for U.S. goods. Their tariffs are a few percentage points higher than ours, but nowhere near the 20% "reciprocal" tariff Trump is charging. It's all in the "currency manipulation and trade barriers" column, which I suppose is Trump deciding that we're allowed to charge sales taxes but the Europeans aren't.

The same is true of most of the "Tariffs" in his chart. Japan has among the lowest tariffs in the entire world at 4.2%, but the Administration lists it as 46%. India imposes an average tariff of 17%, but the Administration lists it as 52%. Taiwan's at 6.4%, but they're listed at 46%. Etc.

So this isn't really about equalizing actual tariff rates. The Administration wanted to charge a very high tariff on imported goods, and has come up with some derived figure that has no relationship to actual tariffs in order to convince people who don't dig into it that this is reciprocation.


https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/tr...
https://thehill.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/202...

first of all, math. you already lost MAGA.

secondly, why would anyone dispute trump can start\stop\change any of this per whatever triggers him?
(which does not mean other nations will tolerate the bullshi+)
trump currently has tacit support of the entire gop.
even those that dislike tariffs dare not speak his name in attribution, and they fear him more than a wrecked economy.

on the good news, the poorer musk gets, the less interesting he is to trump for grift-riding opportunities.
musk's net worth only 600X trump, down from 1000X. trump may be sniffing for replacement <200X.

It's a bit more complicated than that.

It always is.

So this isn't really about equalizing actual tariff rates. The Administration wanted to charge a very high tariff on imported goods, and has come up with some derived figure that has no relationship to actual tariffs in order to convince people who don't dig into it that this is reciprocation.

So it's all a lie to tank the US economy, then.

Or maybe...there's something here. Were you aware that Biden collected more tariff $$$ than Trump did?

https://taxfoundation.org/blog/biden-trump-tariffs...

Trump collected ~$90Bn in tariffs. Biden $144Bn.

At any rate. I've said this before: Trump is putting the economy on a war footing. Does that mean we're going to war? No. What it means is that we're in-sourcing critical things...just in case.

Dope1: Big talker Ontario Premier Doug Ford, after vowing to inflict "pain" on Americans, is suddenly open to dropping all tariffs on the U.S.

Umm. First, Trump didn't impose reciprocal tariffs on Canada. Second, Ford is only open to dropping all tariffs if the U.S. does the same for Canada.

So it's all a lie to tank the US economy, then.

It's largely a lie, but Trump is not motivated to tank the US economy. He's going to, unfortunately; but because he's wrong, not because he wants that to happen.

Trump genuinely and sincerely believes that tariffs are almost a form of free money - a way to force other countries to give us lots of revenues, and that our country only benefits. Of course, that's not true. There's no such thing as a free lunch. Imposing tariffs cuts our country off from cheaper goods, both finished products and components of products that we manufacture ourselves - so we end up poorer when we prevent ourselves from buying those things. And then there's the inevitable retaliatory tariffs against our exports, which just heighten the pain.

Even under his (mistaken) economic theory, it's still a bad look for the U.S. to bully other countries into giving us free money just because we can - just because they're weaker than us. Hence, the claim that countries like Japan - which has one of the lowest tariff rates in the world - is allegedly hitting us with tariffs in the high double-digits. Which is simply not true. But we have to be the unfairly treated aggrieved party, rather than a country just trying use the fact that our economy is bigger than everyone else's to take advantage of them.

Trump genuinely and sincerely believes that tariffs are almost a form of free money - a way to force other countries to give us lots of revenues, and that our country only benefits.

Then...why did Biden collect almost double the tariff revenue that Trump did last time? For a guy that views tariffs as "free money", why didn't he take it? After all, a Neanderthal like him couldn't possibly be wanting something else, right?

Then...why did Biden collect almost double the tariff revenue that Trump did last time?

Because that's how time works? Trump imposed those tariffs a little past halfway in his term, and Biden just continued them. And was criticized by many of the same economists that are critical of Trump's policies as well, for the same reasons - because tariffs aren't free money, but have negative impacts on the economy.

The difference is one of scale - limited tariffs on one country in a few product segments (which both Trump and Biden implemented) cause a modest amount of harm. A global trade war across every product from every country on earth can tank your economy. Trump is doing this because he simply doesn't believe that there's a downside to tariffs. We're all about to experience how wrong he is.

Trump genuinely and sincerely believes that tariffs are almost a form of free money - a way to force other countries to give us lots of revenues, and that our country only benefits.

How many times has Trump declared bankruptcy?

I believe we are on the brink of adding another to the tally.

Trump is doing this because he simply doesn't believe that there's a downside to tariffs. We're all about to experience how wrong he is

Your board brethren fall into the trap of assuming that the White House never games out scenarios and outcomes. I’d caution you not to do the same.

Your board brethren fall into the trap of assuming that the White House never games out scenarios and outcomes. I’d caution you not to do the same.

It's possible, sure. Or equally possible, that none of these tariffs will stick - maybe he just wants every country on the top part of the chart to have to call him up and "deal" to reach some outcome that lets him posture that something important has happened, whether it is or not.

But I'd caution you not to fall into the trap of assuming that every bad idea that Trump has is in service of some grand strategy, where scenarios and outcomes have been gamed out. Sometimes, the contents are just what it says on the tin. Sometimes, it's just a bad idea that he happens to believe is a good idea. Exhibit A is Greenland, where despite your belief that he didn't really want the country and was only pretending to want to acquire it to pursue some more achievable strategic purpose, it's pretty clear that no - he just actually wants to acquire Greenland.

This is, BTW, in itself a major part of the problem. While Trump seems to think that his unpredictability is an asset in negotiations, it also vastly increases the damages that policies like big tariffs will cause to the economy - because people and firms can't adjust to them. When he imposes a 30+% tariff on imports from Taiwan, companies like AAPL or WMT have no idea whether that tariff is going to last through his term - or even through the end of the month. Because he is inconsistent, he has no way to convincingly communicate to American firms what his actual policy plans are - which means they suffer more economic damage than they would if they had visibility into what he actually intends to do.

So while one hopes that this actually is just a gambit, and that he doesn't mistakenly believe that tariffs are costless benefits to US, I'm far from optimistic that this is the case. As well as worried that it doesn't entirely matter, because even the uncertainty may well be enough to cause significant harm to both the American and the global economy even if he does back down.

I'll have to check this out tomorrow sometime.

James Surowiecki @JamesSurowiecki
Just figured out where these fake tariff rates come from. They didn't actually calculate tariff rates + non-tariff barriers, as they say they did. Instead, for every country, they just took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country's exports to us.
So we have a $17.9 billion trade deficit with Indonesia. Its exports to us are $28 billion. $17.9/$28 = 64%, which Trump claims is the tariff rate Indonesia charges us. What extraordinary nonsense this is.

James Surowiecki
@JamesSurowiecki. 1h
Replying to @JamesSurowiecki
It's also important to understand that the tariff rates that foreign countries are supposedly charging us are just made-up numbers. South Korea, with which we have a trade agreement, is not charging a 50% tariff on U.S. exports. Nor is the EU charging a 39% tariff.


If so, this is some junior league stuff that's going to stumble us into an inflationary recession.

If so, this is some junior league stuff that's going to stumble us into an inflationary recession.

As well as stumble us into a war

(In addition to the threats posed by the Greenland/Canada/Panama nonsense

“When goods don’t cross borders, soldiers will.”

As well as stumble us into a war
****

This after spending years playing chicken with Russia.

I don’t see any tariffs on Russia.

This after spending years playing chicken with Russia.

There will be no worries about going to war now with the only country in the world that Trump exempted from his tariffs….you know…. that country that Trump claims to be hard on. (Insert clever rearrangement of words for an alternative explanation for his actions)

exactly "Trump is putting the economy on a war footing"..I would add he is doing the same with his proposed land grabs...
return to the days of "Fortress America" ...

So while one hopes that this actually is just a gambit, and that he doesn't mistakenly believe that tariffs are costless benefits to US, I'm far from optimistic that this is the case.

Me, too. Not just because his policies are capricious (if not arbitrary), but because he's been on the tariff bandwagon for nearly his entire adult life.

Pete

Dug into this and you’re right. The “reciprocal tariffs” are complete crap. We have a friggin’ trade surplus with Australia and we slapped tariffs on them also.

The Canadians are panicking and so are a lot of other folks. I’m not sure what this is going to accomplish other than to forcibly push the economy down.

Its heartbreaking.

For someone like me who *wanted* tough trade rules since the 90s.,,,,and was shunned by both sides, now to see my dream shot turned into garbage is a rare sad moment for me politically speaking.


While it is *too* late to 'go back to the old days' tariffs - IF targeted and used properly would've really helped us in multiple arenas.


Now, our choice is to hurt ourselves, OR kiss the world's ass and say 'I'm sorry'.


The best case scenario is what I said a day or two ago. The Wall Street types and world elites tell Trump the tariff thing is over, other countries offer him token bullshit things so he can claim a victory and it's over.

And at the end of the day, we spent decades *giving* China anything from smartphone technology, to defense tech, to how to operate mass fast freaking food to how to make EV's and even set up distribution networks for them.

The Ruling Class sold us out.

But Trump's lack of strategy in tariffs - solidified that we will never ever be able to do anything about it.

This, was our last chance ever.

Dug into this and you’re right. The “reciprocal tariffs” are complete crap. We have a friggin’ trade surplus with Australia and we slapped tariffs on them also.

The Canadians are panicking and so are a lot of other folks. I’m not sure what this is going to accomplish other than to forcibly push the economy down.

And remember, it's complete crap that you voted for.

But Trump's lack of strategy in tariffs - solidified that we will never ever be able to do anything about it.

This, was our last chance ever.

And remember, you voted for this.

reminds me of the "Brex hit"..times x 1000%....how an apparently reasonable populace deceives them selves...

reminds me of the "Brex hit"..times x 1000%....how an apparently reasonable populace deceives them selves...

A point worth pondering long and hard

But Trump's lack of strategy in tariffs - solidified that we will never ever be able to do anything about it.

This, was our last chance ever.

Had he made this about China and the European Union we could have made some real progress but the moron slapped tariffs on countries that we have a trade surplus with. That makes zero sense whatsoever.

Had he made this about China and the European Union we could have made some real progress but the moron slapped tariffs on countries that we have a trade surplus with. That makes zero sense whatsoever.

Well, it is of a piece with the Administration's broader philosophy to governance.

The Administration, and Trump in particular, has a lot of disdain for the things the government normally uses to make sure that policy proposals "make sense." The government has (had?) a lot of procedures, institutions, and experts on hand to make sure that a lot of knowledgeable eyes looked at policy proposals. They're their to increase the chances of catching if something didn't make sense, was sloppy, was internally inconsistent, or had potential unintended negative consequences.

Trump doesn't value that approach. He actively dislikes it. He distrusts those experts and institutions, and doesn't want the delays that carefully developing a policy requires. It's of a piece with the "move fast and break things" philosophy of Silicon Valley - the belief that it's better to do everything quickly and course-correct if it turns out you made any big mistakes. You need to be fast, and it's better to be fast and make mistakes than to try to be perfect but be really slow. You need to entirely centralize all policy formation and review to the Oval Office, because no one else knows any better or has any legitimate role other than the President and his inner circle.

This is what you get when you don't do things deliberately and utilize the tools that government has built up over decades to avoid making mistakes before they happen. You get a more nimble government, but one that's more prone to doing things that "make zero sense whatsoever."

Had he made this about China and the European Union we could have made some real progress but the moron slapped tariffs on countries that we have a trade surplus with. That makes zero sense whatsoever.

Dear Alien Body Snatchers,

We see what you’re doing. Please remove yourself from Dope’s body immediately.

😇

You get a more nimble government...

Nimble? Seems like the wrong adjective.

Awkward, inept, unskilled, stupid...seem more apropos.

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