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“ China’s exports to the United States plunged by 35 percent in May compared to a year earlier, according to Chinese customs data.China's export growth slowed to 4.8% year on year in May, down from 8.1% YoY in April. The data came in a little softer than market forecasts, and brought year-to-date export growth to 6.0% YoY.
“China’s once bright spot is now in question,” Bass said. “I actually am surprised it’s not down more.”Not because of only 6% growth.
China has also been hit hard by capital flight.
In 2024, Bass said, China experienced a massive outflow of both foreign direct investment (FDI) and portfolio investment totaling about $500 billion, pointing to the gap between its trade surplus of about $980 billion and its current account surplus of about $420 billion.Look at that trade surplus. China itself has become much more of a consumption economy. They've managed to keep it up. I have seen articles that say certain zones in China go through contractions, but not the whole economy. I remember a long time ago listening to someone going to China to produce Porsche motorcycle helmets. Listening to him describe the manufacturing system he'd seen. Had another friend who long ago assisted a millionaire who was a middleman for Chinese watches long in an accounting and contract spat with Deloitte and retailers. Someday, China will have a recession. I've wondered if that will make invasion of Taiwan more tempting - as a distraction.
China is also facing unsustainable debts. When combining China’s sovereign debt and local government financing debt, Bass estimated that the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio should be roughly 350 percent, which he said is difficult to manage considering the various economic challenges.“ https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/chinas-econ...It's difficult, but the Chinese have shown themselves to be adept - depending on who you are listening to. And their CPI sometimes goes negative, go figure.
