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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy
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Author: Lapsody   😊 😞
Number: of 84361 
Subject: Re: China, how are they doing?
Date: 06/29/25 12:05 PM
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“ China’s exports to the United States plunged by 35 percent in May compared to a year earlier, according to Chinese customs data.

China's export growth slowed to 4.8% year on year in May, down from 8.1% YoY in April. The data came in a little softer than market forecasts, and brought year-to-date export growth to 6.0% YoY.

“China’s once bright spot is now in question,” Bass said. “I actually am surprised it’s not down more.”
Not because of only 6% growth.

China has also been hit hard by capital flight.

In 2024, Bass said, China experienced a massive outflow of both foreign direct investment (FDI) and portfolio investment totaling about $500 billion, pointing to the gap between its trade surplus of about $980 billion and its current account surplus of about $420 billion.


Look at that trade surplus. China itself has become much more of a consumption economy. They've managed to keep it up. I have seen articles that say certain zones in China go through contractions, but not the whole economy. I remember a long time ago listening to someone going to China to produce Porsche motorcycle helmets. Listening to him describe the manufacturing system he'd seen. Had another friend who long ago assisted a millionaire who was a middleman for Chinese watches long in an accounting and contract spat with Deloitte and retailers. Someday, China will have a recession. I've wondered if that will make invasion of Taiwan more tempting - as a distraction.

China is also facing unsustainable debts. When combining China’s sovereign debt and local government financing debt, Bass estimated that the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio should be roughly 350 percent, which he said is difficult to manage considering the various economic challenges.“ zerohedge.com - Chinas econ...

It's difficult, but the Chinese have shown themselves to be adept - depending on who you are listening to. And their CPI sometimes goes negative, go figure.
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This community has written 84,309 posts about US Policy. The article-length ones it recommended most:
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