noting that the OAOA tariff "silliness" makes relying on classically-tested signals a bit more challenging right now.

You can *always* find a reason to do whatever you want to do.

Demosthenes (384-22 BC): “Nothing is easier than self-deceit. For what each man wishes, that he also believes to be true.”

"Your edge is nothing more than a higher probability of one thing happening over another. Your edge is no guarantee of a winning trade, just of winning over time." -- roguetraderette

There are always reasons to think "It's different this time." But it almost never is.



Remind us what your re-entry trigger is, Ray, is it 1 complete week above the 43-wk or 2 weeks?

The "in" signal is the first week that the S&P500 closes above the 43 week SMA.

The "sell" signal is if the S&P500 closes below the SMA *and* either of the FRED indexes is down YOY. (Personally, I use -2% below the SMA. Because that has fewer sell signals and has slightly better return. You need to have different percentages to avoid whiplash.)

Mechanical Investing FAQ

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