Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
Best Of MIBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd
Search
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Search
Best Of MIBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd


The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again
Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (44) |
Author: anchak   😊 😞
Number: of 6132 
Subject: Re: A mechanical strategy
Date: 03/24/23 7:47 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 0
WOW - Just WOW! My cognitive faculties have clearly gone for a toss!

Or in this case I choose to BLAME it on this guy's clumsiness in explaining the strategy :)

Third time lucky perhaps - actually the 2nd attempt was basically correct.

Here's the updated formula for the Buy and Sell sides

Buy Side = P[i-1]* ( Theta - Alpha1 + Theta*Alpha1)

Sell Side =P[i-1] * ( Theta - Alpha2 - Theta*Alpha2)

And as I thought thru the guys' examples - and in the scenario where theta = alpha ie the Drop in index is equal to the chosen threshold
you will see that the System basically leaves you to do almost nothing - ie for all practical purposes it tries to maintain a parity
of invested $ to 50% of Portfolio * ( 1- Alpha) ie drop threshold.

So in essence its a 50:50 ish strategy based on initial $ with 50% sitting in cash all the time!!

This is CRAZY - so Starts matter A LOT - ie it needs a few bears at the beginning to even hold a chance!

Honestly - I wouldn't even waste time on this if I am right this go around( I am SINCERELY HOPING I am)

Best
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
Print the post
Members reply directly to anchak here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 6,115 posts about Mechanical Investing. The article-length ones it recommended most:
Dividend investing · 52 recs · 2025
Non-Mag7 screen · 34 recs · 2025
OT - Div yields and returns · 32 recs · 2024
Using AI to generate backtesting programs · 30 recs · 2025
Rankings for 19Dec2022 · 29 recs · 2022
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (44) |


Announcements
Mechanical Investing FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Best Of MI | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds | Open Questions | Moving a community