Invest your own money, let compound effect be your leverage, and avoid debt like the plague.
- Manlobbi
Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
No. of Recommendations: 1
I know a few here estimate Q2 quite well. I believe there's some bigger unknowns than usual (e.g., early Q GOOG buying? how much?), and the equity portfolio should provide a substantial tailwind this quarter in any event, but I was hoping some might be willing to share their best guesses.
NB: Pre-emptively, AI is not good at this. I tested and its all over the map, with obvious errors when pressed. I suppose the answer would be better if I guided it with all the relevant variables, but at that point I'd be able to do the work properly myself.
No. of Recommendations: 4
'I was hoping some might be willing to share their best guesses."
Until I see more data, my best guess is about 2.6% higher than the Mar 31 BV, or about $523K/A-share. This number is nothing more than a simple extrapolation of recent (5 year) BV/share, which has grown quite steadily over the last five years, and even over the last 25 years. It does not make any adjustments for possible better-than-average stock market returns, possible write-downs or possible buybacks. FWIW.
No. of Recommendations: 4
I estimate book value per B share at $350+. As of today $356, but saw a few good stock performances. Overall, I would go with $353 per B share at QE.
No. of Recommendations: 9
Overall, I would go with $353 per B share at QE.
Seems about right. My estimate came in at $353.58 with no guesses for underwriting profits or share repurchases. It's typically plus or minus a dollar or two.
Net income from operations less insurance around $6B.
Equity dividends after tax about $900M.
Return on cash after tax about $3B.
Equities increase after tax about $25B.
Jeff
Could also add something like $1.5B for underwriting profits maybe and get to an ending bv of $354.25?
I would say $352-$355 is a pretty high confidence interval.
