Post #1789 by FlyingCircus on the Mechanical Investing board

Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing

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No. of Recommendations: 14

One might think from looking at market behavior these last 2-3 weeks that a new deadly unknown pandemic was starting, not a .05% miss on an inflation estimate and a few months pushback of future interest rates relaxing by 1/2 a percent. Almost every intermediate breadth/trend signal I follow has flipped to bearish. As fast as they did when the CV panic hit. Hopefully a bit overdone, methinks (but not predicting).
Overall: -6</> - swing from +6 in 2 weeks.
Intermediate-Term
Type Indicator Bears Bulls As of
BearCatcher Nasdaq New Hs/New Ls Bear 4/12/24
BearCatcher SMA Slope, S&P 500 Bull 11/10/23
BearCatcher Dying Bullish Euphoria Bull 12/14/23
BC Summary The Key 1 2
Momentum, Int # 26 week highs 1/19/24
Momentum, Int DMI Bear Bull 4/19/24 Every exchange EXCEPT S&P is bearish DMI.
Momentum, Int 10/50 Crossover Bear 4/19/24
Momentum, Int PPO Weekly Bear 4/19
Momentum, Int 26W / 52W Bull 11/10/23
Breadth, midt PAMA Naz 50 Bear 4/12
Breadth, midt Breadth Confirms Bear 4/12/24
Breadth, midt Naz Bullish % Bear 4/19/24
Breadth, midt S&P PAMA 200 Bull 12/15/23
Breadth Thrust Breadth Thrust Watch
Correction Mode >7% off last peak Bull 11/9/23
Timing, Seasonal MACD on RUT Bear 4/19/24
Interest Rates Corporate Bond Index 2/16/24

Short Term Top Warning 5
Momentum, ST PPO Daily Bear 3/22/24
Breadth, ST SP600 PAMA20 Bear 3/15
Breadth, ST PAMA5D %OFF 21dh Bear 4/12/24
Top, st PAMA Divergence Highs Bear 2/16/24
Top PAA Count Bear 12/18/23
Top Recent Simple Top 1/10/24
Top Primary-Tech Divergence
Bottom Extreme PAMA low Bull-weak 4/12/24

Enjoy the weekend / whatever your retirement activities are and share mechanical fixed income picking ideas you have ;-)

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No. of Recommendations: 11

For those interested in such things... an update.
* While still bearish overall, this week's score went from -6 to -3. PAMA 200 and PAMA 20 improvements.
* PAMA 50, PAMA 200 and the bullish % rose a bit, flattening out the slope of the downtrend.
* the daily PPOs went from -.8 to -.1 - while still negative, improving - reflecting this week's pausing the short term downtrend and going up a little.

My interpretation: the little tantrum over interest rates & inflation may be done. The indexes appears to have stabilized overall.

Then again, of course, I could be wrong.

FC

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