Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
Best Of MIBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd
Search
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Search
Best Of MIBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd


The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again
Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (149) |
Author: rayvt 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 6131 
Subject: Re: Chart: timing with Nas100 RS screen
Date: 08/15/26 5:36 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 6
Drond, good work, good discussion. I deserves to be pulled out into its own thread.
I'm going to have to print it out so I can look at it closely.

A few quick comments:
* These momentum strategies belong in a tax advantaged account, not in a taxable account. Preferably in a Roth because the gains will never be taxed. The ongoing tax friction in a taxable account will kill you.

* Re timing: "We don't have to be perfect, all we need is to be good enough."
"Roger Nusbaum:
I don't really think it matters which trigger is used as no single trigger can be the best for all times but they can be effective which is the priority as I see it. Here effective is simply defined as avoiding the full brunt of a large decline. Aside from my belief in its effectiveness, the 200 DMA is simple to explain and understand."

Ken Fisher says "The Two-Thirds / One-Third Rule: Major bear markets usually start slow and rolling rather than crashing immediately. About one-third of the total percentage drop happens in the first two-thirds of the bear market's duration, while the final vicious drop happens in the last third."
So your timing entry-point trigger does not need to be finely tuned. If anything, you should be slow on the sell trigger. So that you catch the large grinding declines without selling on normal volatility bobbles.
Just pick something that is easy to compute and arguably reasonable.

That being said, you don't need to mess with timing these screens at all _IF_ you are going to do it long term and can stomach the large declines.
Turning $10,000 into $257,000+ in the last 20 years is something, even with a -58% drawdown along the way.

* "PHL vs RS Redundant ... Two proxies for one quantity"
Yes. For today, 3 of the top 5 and 6 of the top 10 are common.




Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
Print the post
Members reply directly to rayvt here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 6,115 posts about Mechanical Investing. The article-length ones it recommended most:
Dividend investing · 52 recs · 2025
Non-Mag7 screen · 34 recs · 2025
OT - Div yields and returns · 32 recs · 2024
Using AI to generate backtesting programs · 30 recs · 2025
Rankings for 19Dec2022 · 29 recs · 2022
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (149) |


Announcements
Mechanical Investing FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Best Of MI | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds | Open Questions | Moving a community