The amount of money consumers have to spend on housing is not sufficient to buy a house in today's market.

Much of today's market is downsizing. Meaning people selling properties for cash and buying down for cash.

My parents 6 weeks ago sold their home in CT, and moved to be closer to my sisters in MA. With the proceeds of the sale, they will rent for the next 8 years. Dad and Mom are 86 and 85, respectively. The person who bought their home for cash had been widowed and wanted to be near their daughter in CT.

That sort of swapping was happening in a market with a tight inventory. During COVID, rates were so low that people locked into mortgages and won't move now if they can help it. The COVID-19 borrowings and retirement funds have propped up the equity markets directly and indirectly.

The resulting inflation and overconsumption after COVID is being replaced with job cuts today. The pace of layoffs will quicken.

You do not want to see the opposite. Our regional is mulling over giving us a 5% raise at work. The decision has to happen by Sept 20 with our new staffing decisions. You retired folks reading this can not enjoy that. If I am entirely wrong by Christmas, we all begin to lose to hyperinflation.

Meanwhile, housing is in trouble. Asset values are probably going to get very shaky. Consumption should contract.