Trump made it clear that he would rather have the government shutdown in a couple of weeks rather than pass a budget that did not contain a non-budgetary policy.

So, when the government shuts down at the end of this month and everyone is pointing fingers on who is to blame, just remember that a shutdown is Trump's preferred course of action if he can't get his non-budget way. The hostage taking has begun.

Now, I really don't think the government is going to shut down. There are too many Republicans who are sick of taking the heat for holding the government hostage and the last thing they want is to do so again just before the election. I am willing to bet that there are at least 60 Republicans that would vote for almost anything that the Democrats put on the table just so the whole issue would go away.

The problem is, there are only two Republicans who matter: Trump and Speaker Johnson. Trump has made his position clear. We do not know what Johnson's position is going to be. We also do not know how much pressure Trump is going to apply to Johnson. Probably not a whole lot of pressure, but if Trump gets stubborn he can make it clear to Johnson that if he doesn't go along, Johnson no longer has his support for Speaker. I doubt Trump would put that much pressure on Johnson, but if Trump somehow thinks that a shutdown is good for his re-election chances, then he would definitely do it and no one will convince him otherwise.

The point of all of this is, the poor deal maker that he is, Trump has already undercut his allies negotiating position. Those Republicans who are looking to keep the government open but also get a good deal in doing so will now have a harder time. The Democrats can drive as hard a bargain as they want and Trump and the Republicans are going to take the blame if an agreement cannot be reached and there is a shutdown. Trump has made it quite clear (in all caps no less) that a shutdown is ok with him.

I predict there is either going to be a short CR that runs until December or a full year's budget with modest spending increases. Both are acceptable to Democrats. Republicans will hate it, but after Trump's dumb tweet, their choice is either shutting down the government or giving in to Democrats.