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The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again
Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: mapg ✭x2  😊 😞
Number: of 6243 
Subject: ModernFamily EOM Sep-2026
Date: 10/01/26 9:27 AM
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No. of Recommendations: 6
Symbol: (daily)           SPY          IWL         IWR         IWM         IYT         XRT         KRE        IBB        SMH
As of (LastD) 30-Sep-26 01-Oct-26 01-Oct-26 01-Oct-26 30-Sep-26 01-Oct-26 30-Sep-26 30-Sep-26 30-Sep-26
Signal_Status* Bullish Bullish Bullish Bullish BEARish Bullish Bullish Bullish Bullish
Signal_ChgD 14-Apr-26 15-Apr-26 18-Jul-25 18-Jul-25 30-Sep-26 29-May-26 02-Dec-25 08-May-26 24-Sep-26
Since_ChgD 169 169 440 440 0 125 302 145 6
Confirmed Yes Yes Not Yet Not Yet Yes Not Yet Not Yet Yes Not Yet
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Status_MAC(50) Support Support Resistance Resistance Resistance Resistance Resistance Support Support
ROC(50-DMA) 2.8% 2.8% 3.2% 1.2% -0.4% 1.8% 3.8% 15.8% -7.0%
Status_MAC(200) Support Support Support Support Resistance Resistance Support Support Support
ROC(200-DMA) 15.5% 15.4% 14.0% 24.9% 19.4% 7.5% 17.1% 30.7% 83.8%
DMAC(50,200) 6.0% 5.9% 5.8% 6.2% 3.9% 1.2% 5.6% 12.4% 14.4%
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
LastD_Price 762.63 190.16 106.71 277.89 78.58 82.15 69.44 210.53 609.00
50-DMA 762.74 189.08 110.88 293.08 84.41 86.84 74.54 203.06 568.22
200-DMA 719.62 178.47 104.79 276.05 81.23 85.80 70.56 180.69 496.79
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
# Signals /Yr 2 2 0 0 1 6 2 4 2
# BuyD /Yr 243 237 252 252 251 226 242 239 239
# NeutralD /Yr 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
# SellD /Yr 9 15 0 0 1 26 10 13 13
% BuyD /Yr 96% 94% 100% 100% 100% 90% 96% 95% 95%
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
52wL(Daily) 631.97 156.00 91.69 229.11 68.14 77.28 58.14 142.41 322.66
52wH(Daily) 777.88 192.88 114.82 305.09 90.01 92.35 77.93 216.96 668.91
% Off_52wH 2.0% 1.4% 7.6% 9.8% 14.5% 12.4% 12.2% 3.1% 9.8%
LastD_52wH 13-Aug-26 21-Sep-26 14-Aug-26 14-Aug-26 16-Jul-26 04-Aug-26 14-Aug-26 19-Aug-26 22-Jun-26
SinceD_52wH 48 9 47 47 76 57 47 42 100
CountD_52wH 37 34 40 35 28 8 15 36 51


The "Economic Modern Family" is a combination of three market index ETF's and five varying sectors & groups for "Market Analysis".
Trend indicators that give you an overall weekly gauge of how aggressive or not to be on the long or short side.
*My "Modern Family" signals(2) are not strictly identical to the (MarketGauge.com) "Phases Tutorial"(6).
Market Phases - Rev 27-Sep-2024 Intermediate-Term 50-DMA and/or 200-DMA.
"BEARish" - phase when Status_MAC(50) is "RESISTANCE" while ROC(50-DMA) is Negative OR Status_MAC(200) is "RESISTANCE" while ROC(200-DMA) is Negative.
"Bullish" - phase when NOT "BEARish".
"Support" - is the level(floor) at which demand is strong enough to stop the stock from falling any further. (MAC positive 5d)
"Resistance" - is the level(ceiling) at which supply is strong enough to stop the stock from moving higher. (MAC negative 5d)
"Confirmed" - when Status_MAC(50) AND ROC(50-DMA) both agree with "Signal_Status" phase.
ROC(50-DMA) = 50*SLOPE(F$458:F$507,$A$458:$A$507)/TREND(F$458:F$507,$A$458:$A$507,$A$458) Where F is 50-DMA and A is MktDay (ascending).
ROC(200-DMA) = 200*SLOPE(F$308:F$507,$A$308:$A$507)/TREND(F$308:F$507,$A$308:$A$507,$A$308) Where F is 200-DMA and A is MktDay (ascending).
Criteria that Refute - Moving Average Crossovers(MAC) do well in trending markets but they generate many false signals in choppy, sideways markets.
Technical Analysis - After a MAC is identified, it is considered "not yet confirmed". Confirmation is then sought by watching the Slope(ROC) of the DMA.

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GD_
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