Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
Best Of BRK.ABest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd
Search
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Search
Best Of BRK.ABest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd


The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again
Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (2) |
Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝 GOLD
SHREWD
  😊 😞

Number: of 21936 
Subject: Re: BRK or cash?
Date: 05/27/26 12:05 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 23
not a screaming buy in terms of PB ratio.

The price has gone down in the last year, and the value has gone up, so things are lot more attractive than they were. Aside from transient short term squiggles, I would expect Berkshire shares to outperform cash in the next year.

Back of the envelope:

Maybe nominal value growth of 10.5% in the next year? Real growth of 6.5%-7.5%, plus inflation of 3-4%?
Boring old P/B is 1.43. If it drops to a modern-era typical 1.4, that's a drop of only -2.1%, leaving you with a plausible expectation of in the range of nominal 8.4%.

One year T-bills are paying nominal 3.8%. That's a whole lot lower than 8.4%, so my back of the envelope could be off by quite a bit and Berkshire would still be the better bet.

That envelope calculus of course assumes that the market is "typical" a year from now. We might see a financial disaster, or we might see stocks go to the moon. Nobody knows. But it's reasonable to think that a positive year is more likely than a negative year from here.

Jim

Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
Print the post
Members reply directly to mungofitch here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 21,442 posts about Berkshire Hathaway. The article-length ones it recommended most:
BRK: Why Not XOM? · 62 recs · 2024
Second quarter comments · 60 recs · 2023
Berkshire's Profit Contributors · 57 recs · 2023
Summary of 2Q 2026 · 54 recs · 2026
3Q Summary · 53 recs · 2024
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (2) |


Announcements
Berkshire Hathaway FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Best Of BRK.A | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds | Open Questions | Moving a community