Some off topic posts are okay, but please prefix them 'OT:' in the subject.
- Manlobbi
Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy
No. of Recommendations: 1
Was cycling yesterday afternoon with a friend, a conservative. We normally avoid politics and religion but somehow got on the subject of immigration and the border issues. He brought up the record number of "illegal" crossings and how it was far less under Trump.
Then he talked about the surge of Chinese migrants "of military age" coming in. He is so concerned he bought extra magazines and ammunition for his recently acquired AR-15.
He's a normal, upper-middle-class family man, a lycra-wearing cyclist...and he's stock-pilling weapons and ammunition. Against a Chinese state-sponsored attack, I assume.
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I did a Google search "was immigration less under trump".
Second hit - interesting charts:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/2024/02...This "looks" very bad (to someone who thinks we need to restrict immigration, and I do).
Is there really
nothing the Biden administration could have done or can do?
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I see Biden used the term "illegal" last night and upset some Democrats.
https://news.yahoo.com/biden-illegal-describe-migr...“No human being is illegal,” said Rep. Delia Ramirez (D-Ill.) in a social media post soon afterwards.-----------------
Another Google search "most important issue for 2024"
4th hit:
https://news.gallup.com/poll/611135/immigration-su...Immigration Surges to Top of Most Important Problem List
First time immigration has been the single most important problem since 2019
No. of Recommendations: 5
<He's a normal, upper-middle-class family man, a lycra-wearing cyclist...and he's stock-pilling weapons and ammunition. Against a Chinese state-sponsored attack, I assume.
Is there really nothing the Biden administration could have done or can do?>
1) Looks like your friends inability to think critically has landed him in the Fox News Doom Loop sad.
2) Congress had a pretty good bipartisan bill to address the border problem ready to go but Trump demanded they kill it so he could "blame Biden." (Maybe its working?)
Republicans whine endlessly about immigration policy while simultaneously tanking bipartisan legislation designed to deal with immigration.
Trump said, "the Senate is better off not making a deal, even if it means the country will close up for a while."
"The border is a very important issue for Donald Trump, and the fact that he would communicate to Republican senators and congresspeople that
he doesn’t want us to solve the border problem because he wants to blame Joe Biden for it is really appalling." ~Mitt Romney
Trumps open border is endangering Americans.
No. of Recommendations: 2
Another Google search "most important issue for 2024"
4th hit:
https://news.gallup.com/poll/611135/immigration-su...
Immigration Surges to Top of Most Important Problem List
First time immigration has been the single most important problem since 2019 - article linked by Adrian---------------------
Top Issue for sure, the polls have been showing border security as the top issue for quite a while. Yet Biden was 40 minutes into his speech before mentioning it. He even spoke about Snickers bars before getting around to the border.
Speaking of polls, I was surprised to see abortion being the number 1 issue for only about 10% of those polled. I thought it would have been much higher than that. This was one area of Biden's speech that I did agree with, although Biden could have made his point without his not too subtle slap at the SCOTUS judges sitting right there in front of him.
No. of Recommendations: 2
Speaking of polls, I was surprised to see abortion being the number 1 issue for only about 10% of those polled. I thought it would have been much higher than that. This was one area of Biden's speech that I did agree with, although Biden could have made his point without his not too subtle slap at the SCOTUS judges sitting right there in front of him.
Looks like you have to strain ti criticize it. Y'all have dropped talking about the Biden Crime Family, why is that?
No. of Recommendations: 2
He's a normal, upper-middle-class family man, a lycra-wearing cyclist...and he's stock-pilling weapons and ammunition. Against a Chinese state-sponsored attack, I assume.
Watch and see if he gets prepper fever. If he keeps adding and then stockpiles food, he's gone round the bend. In the Philippines I tried to stockpile three days of food in the back of the closet. Didn't work. My wife inevitably used it and would forget to replace it. :) It was just for emergency.
A very heavy storm came through and knocked the power line down onto the road. Not touching it. I was eating all the odds and ends my wife had hidden. Stuff we didn't know was there. Then an old flat bed came through carrying crops and a wiry old fellow got out with a hunk of aluminum wire yanked the wire over to a tree, climbed up the tree, pulled it taught and secured it. I was awed by his ability. Little kids watching were amazed too. Especially when he secured the aluminum wire around the tree and then pulled the cable taught through it raising it up 12 feet across the road. What a feat! He did it by hand while hanging onto a tree with he legs. I never would have attempted and would have run rope around the tree and tied it to my lttle three wheeler. Later the electrical crew put it back together, bu they had have machinery.
No. of Recommendations: 7
Top Issue for sure, the polls have been showing border security as the top issue for quite a while. Yet Biden was 40 minutes into his speech before mentioning it.
Probably a smart move. Border security is a bad issue for Biden. Their campaign goal should be to try decrease the salience of it. They're more likely to have success at changing the percentage of people who cite border security as their top issue than at changing the percentage of people who prefer Trump to Biden on that issue. The GOP will be doing the reverse - they'll be trying to increase how top-of-mind voters consider border security.
No. of Recommendations: 4
Border security is a bad issue for Biden. Their campaign goal should be to try decrease the salience of it. They're more likely to have success at changing the percentage of people who cite border security as their top issue than at changing the percentage of people who prefer Trump to Biden on that issue. The GOP will be doing the reverse - they'll be trying to increase how top-of-mind voters consider border security.It is a bad issue. THE top issue for many voters. I very much fear the democrats have screwed the pooch on this one.
Example: quote from op-ed in today's local paper:
"Joe Biden's failure to secure the southern border is not just a failure of leadership; it is a betrayal of the American people and our nation's values".
Yes, I know there was a bi-partisan proposal that got nixed (by Trump, effectively). But wasn't that all a bit too late (for the 2024 election) anyway?
The Biden admin has had three years to do something, so what have they done? Made the problem worse?
How can we "decrease the salience of it"? The numbers are what they are.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/2024/02...
No. of Recommendations: 0
Example: quote from op-ed in today's local paper:
"Joe Biden's failure to secure the southern border is not just a failure of leadership; it is a betrayal of the American people and our nation's values".
This looks like an issue you have to be able to grandstand on. One of the better ways to do that for MAGA is to flout the law, as Gov Abbot is doing. Talk disparagingly about the raping murdering hordes crossing the border. What could we do that is similar? We want humanitarian treatment. So 2 things are hurting us, the death toll from Gaza, and hordes crossing the border.
We could defy the law, pilfer some money and appoint admin teams to process asylees. Every civic group would be screaming - not a good look.
How are we gonna pick off the uncommitted or independents? We have to be nimble and take advantage of Trump's natural tendency to screw things up. And we have to know when to push on an issue and bring it to the fore. Tall order. But we may be seeing a glimpse of it as Trump pilfers the RNC for legal fees. We can't shake MAGA, we want the uncommitteds and independents. Let's keep that guy scrounging for funds, whining about persecution, creating huge errors that can be played as mental lapses, alienating people who believe in strength through alliances, who believe that women should have better choices. who believe that we have leadership of the free world thrust upon us, who know our trade alliances help stave off China, etc. We have to offer something to those disillusioned with Trump and suspicious of progressives and liberals.
Any ideas?
No. of Recommendations: 4
It's like gas prices. Often, the POTUS gets blamed for them. But he can do very little about them. The market, and geo-politics, determines the price. Same with immigration/migrants. The POTUS can do very little, barring an emergency that enables him/her to invoke Title 42. Under current law, which has been the law for decades, if a migrant gets across the border they can apply for asylum. It's really that simple. The recent legislation would have curtailed that a lot. But whether that, or other, legislation ultimately is approved, legislation is required. The POTUS can't just EO his/her way out of it. Trump tried, and it was shot down by the courts. And until albaby informed us, I was unaware that Biden also tried...and it was shot down by the courts.
People should be angry with their congress-critters, not the POTUS (whomever that is/was/will-be), because the POTUS has very little power in that area. He/she cannot violate the law, no matter how much the public may want him/her to.
I think the Dems (supporting Biden) need to point out where the real blame lies: Congress. Without Congressional action, nothing can or will change. No matter who wins in November. Mike Johnson refusing to even hold debates about the Senate bill should be used as a bludgeon for the next 8 months.
No. of Recommendations: 2
Well, it certainly bears repeating and repeating, ad infinitum, that the Repubs blocked the passage of a immigration bill that was giving the GOP most of what they wanted and little of what the Dems wanted. Trump wanted to campaign on the issue, so he told his Quislings in Congress not to pass the bill. Shameful.
The problem for the Dems and the advantage for the Repubs is that the MAGA faithful never get to hear the facts; they live in the RW bubble. And many are cultists for their orange guru; nothing sways them.
No. of Recommendations: 0
gesThe problem for the Dems and the advantage for the Repubs is that the MAGA faithful never get to hear the facts; they live in the RW bubble.
We do not care about Maga zombies. We are looking for independents, undecideds, and uncommitted in the rubble. If we don't win, we'll never jail Trump, he'll pardon everyone in jail, Project 2025 the government, put Trump in big letters on the white house, sell access for huge sums, and we just hope he doesn't gut SS and Medicare.
No. of Recommendations: 4
We do not care about Maga zombies. We are looking for independents, undecideds, and uncommitted in the rubble. If we don't win, we'll never jail Trump, he'll pardon everyone in jail, Project 2025 the government, put Trump in big letters on the white house, sell access for huge sums, and we just hope he doesn't gut SS and Medicare.
Good point. I hope they are reachable. It is alarming to me that Trump is making inroads with Hispanics and blacks. I think a lot of undecideds are not paying close attention or they would realize Trump is NOT their friend. He's made that plain.
I can understand how many Palestinian Americans are unhappy with what is happening in Gaza, but if their lack of support helps Trump get elected they will get something far worse.
No. of Recommendations: 2
It's like gas prices. Often, the POTUS gets blamed for them. But he can do very little about them. The market, and geo-politics, determines the price. Same with immigration/migrants. The POTUS can do very little, barring an emergency that enables him/her to invoke Title 42. Under current law, which has been the law for decades, if a migrant gets across the border they can apply for asylum. It's really that simple. The recent legislation would have curtailed that a lot. But whether that, or other, legislation ultimately is approved, legislation is required. The POTUS can't just EO his/her way out of it. Trump tried, and it was shot down by the courts. And until albaby informed us, I was unaware that Biden also tried...and it was shot down by the courts.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Remain_in_Mexico"In February 2021, the administration of President Joe Biden ended the "Remain in Mexico" policy, resuming admission of new asylum seekers..."
And it goes back and forth from there.
Parole numbers:
Trump: 330k
Biden: 2.3 million
I'm not saying Remain in Mexico is good policy. I'm saying these numbers, and the other numbers in the article posted upthread, they look bad. It looks like an invitation, and the invitation was accepted by millions of migrants.
What do I tell my cycling buddy? This is all the Republicans fault, even though the Democrats held the presidency and both houses for two years?
Here in Ohio, quite a long way from the Southern border, the three Republican candidates for US Senate are falling over themselves to point all this out. I'll be amazed (and delighted) if Sherrod Brown keeps his Senate seat after November.
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This article is from two years ago, when Democrats were expected to lose in the midterms:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/may/01/re..."Biden has worked to reverse many hardline policies that were at the heart of Trump’s “zero tolerance” approach to immigration. The number of migrants attempting to cross the border has risen sharply.
Biden has argued that the only way to address the migration is at the source – an ambitious plan that will probably take years to bear fruit. In the short term, his administration faces acute operational and political challenges."
No. of Recommendations: 3
What do I tell my cycling buddy? This is all the Republicans fault, even though the Democrats held the presidency and both houses for two years?
Tell them that Trump killed the best immigration bill they could hope for. Sheesh.
No. of Recommendations: 1
Tell them that Trump killed the best immigration bill they could hope for. Sheesh.
Of course, my buddy is not going to see it that way.
He's going to expect a Republican majority and presidency to finally get the job done right in 2025, instead of some "liberal compromise".
And if it happens (not likely) it's not going to be anything we like.
(He's also going to ask why we waited until the election year to try to do anything about it - a valid point IMO).
But, yeah. What's (not) done is (not) done. Think good thoughts.
The Biden admin got a lot of good stuff done (see Guardian article upthread).
No. of Recommendations: 4
Point out the litigation section. It is questionable legally, which is why it was stayed several times. There were appeals pending in the courts when Biden took office (next section after "litigation". From what albaby has explained, it was not likely to survive all the challenges. Once they are here, you can't mini-deport them unless Mexico (for example) agrees to it. They have the legal right to apply for asylum, and if they pass their initial interview, remain until they have their court date.
Trump also had two years of Rep control of Congress, and also did nothing. He tried to EO his way through, but the courts kept shooting his EOs down.
No, it would be a lie to say it is all the Rep's fault. This issue has been festering for decades. Back in the 80s and 90s, it was how many people think it still is: Mexicans (mostly) sneaking across the border to find work. But that hasn't been true for maybe 20 years now. They are asylum seekers. Whole different set of rules, completely different circumstance. And it's not just Mexicans. It's a lot of Central and South America, plus China, and Ukraine, and Russia...just to name a few. Fleeing war, civil violence (gangs, warlords, whatever), government-sponsored violence (repression and persecution), etc. And we are legally obligated to process every one of them that crosses our border.
The Senate bill would have tightened restrictions, possibly even to the point that part of it might have been struck down. We'll never know because -this time- it is squarely on Trump and Johnson. I can't say "Reps" here because Reps were in the room at the negotiating table, and were hammering out a compromise that under almost any other circumstance, a large number of Dems would not have agreed to. I'm sure the progressive wing is secretly thanking Trump and Johnson, because they especially didn't want that bill.
No. of Recommendations: 3
Oh...missed this bit also:
In February 2023, Mexico's Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced it rejects any efforts to reinstate the policy for asylum-seekers.[38]
So, as I said in my previous post, you have to get Mexico to cooperate with that policy. And they obviously aren't willing to do it.
No. of Recommendations: 3
He's going to expect a Republican majority and presidency to finally get the job done right in 2025, instead of some "liberal compromise".
And if it happens (not likely) it's not going to be anything we like.
I agree, it is not likely to happen now. And that is a shame. The proposed bill really did have so much that the Republicans wanted. And most voters just won't take that lost opportunity into account.
No. of Recommendations: 5
"Biden has worked to reverse many hardline policies that were at the heart of Trump’s “zero tolerance” approach to immigration. The number of migrants attempting to cross the border has risen sharply.
Adrian, the hardline policies were things Stephen Miller and his buddies concocted, such as separating a child from its parents, to send a message - don't come here. We don't like it, but we don't want to be inhuman. Much of the MAGA have no problem *wink*wink* being harsh to inhuman to illegals/asylees. 1 out of 4 asylees being accepted are high numbers to me and many MAGAS simply don't care, turn more away. We say you had at least two years control under T to do it and you didn't, why?
Did you forget? Get preoccupied with Putin? Dismantling NATO? Covid! Well we no longer have the blessing of Covid as the CDC rescinded the emergency and in spite of many efforts by Biden to duplicate the emergency powers, we can't do it,legally. Congress codified the refugee requirements of the Geneva convention on torture and refugees and we need to work together at the Congressional level to do it. Republican senators were doing that, working with Democrats, it was happening. HALLELUJAH! Short lived, but it shows we can do it again.
We need to look at the entire immigration/asylee supply chain from advertisements posted on social web pages, to the Darien, to the gangs that ride herd om paying refugees, to the genuine refugees, to the economic refugees, to the administrative ability to process asylees, to the slimmed human rights afforded, to our ability to shut down the border to avoid chaos, to budgets, to strategies that don't violate laws or humanity. etc.
