Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
Best Of MIBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd
Search
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Search
Best Of MIBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd


The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again
Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (12) |
Author: lizgdal   😊 😞
Number: of 6131 
Subject: Re: G-score backtest
Date: 11/11/24 8:31 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 2
Thanks for posting the P123 results for comparison.

I just ran a Backtest using P123's GScore Screen for equities in the SP1500 from 1/3/2002.
25 stocks, 4 week rebalance, 0.25% slippage, CAGR 10.7% vs S&P 9.4%


The 10.7 CAGR is slightly lower than the gtr1 results:

           screen             CAGR  SDcg  depth    from       to     P123          notes
GAscore_top25_SP1500_20dhold 11.5 0.5 49 20020103 20241108 10.7 all GAscore=7
Gscore_top25_SP1500_20dhold 12.5 0.5 83 20020103 20241108 mix of Gscore=6 and 7
SP500MktCapWeight 9.6 0.0 499 20020103 20241108 9.4


There is not much space between GAscore and Gscore results, and so it's difficult to say which one P123 is using. (There are more than 25 GAscore=7 stocks, with an average count of 49 passing stocks. There are sometimes fewer than 25 Gscore=7 stocks, and so the screen sometimes adds in Gscore=6 picks.)


Rerunning a rolling backtest(multiple start dates) 11/11/2014 – 11/11/2024
523 Samples, Start Frequency every Week, Holding Period 3 Months:
Scrn SP500
Annualized 20.06% 13.33%


The 20.1 CAGR is higher than the gtr1 results:

           screen             CAGR  SDcg  depth    from       to     P123
GAscore_top25_SP1500_20dhold 10.8 0.9 51 20141111 20241108
Gscore_top25_SP1500_20dhold 16.2 0.7 91 20141111 20241108 20.1
SP500MktCapWeight 13.5 0.0 500 20141111 20241108 13.3


Growth stocks have higher returns recently, and so Gscore_top25 has higher returns.

Having an explicit tie break would make comparisons easier. For example, using price as a tie break makes the depth a consistent 25:
Price > 1
SortField = Gscore + 1/Price
SortField top 25

               Screen                 CAGR  SDcg  Depth    From       To
GAscoreLowPrice_top25_SP1500_20dhold 9.3 0.5 25 20141111 20241108
GscoreLowPrice_top25_SP1500_20dhold 16.7 0.9 25 20141111 20241108

Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
Print the post
Members reply directly to lizgdal here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 6,106 posts about Mechanical Investing. The article-length ones it recommended most:
Dividend investing · 52 recs · 2025
Non-Mag7 screen · 34 recs · 2025
OT - Div yields and returns · 32 recs · 2024
Using AI to generate backtesting programs · 30 recs · 2025
Rankings for 19Dec2022 · 29 recs · 2022
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (12) |


Announcements
Mechanical Investing FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Best Of MI | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds | Open Questions | Moving a community