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The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Stocks A to Z / Stocks M / Microsoft (MSFT)
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Author: tecmo ⎊☼  😊 😞
Number: of 67 
Subject: Long term valuation
Date: 09/18/26 6:55 PM
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I also posted this on the Google board , here is the analysis for MSFT

morganstanley.com - Article tofreeornottofree ltr

(I asked Gemini to prepare 3 valuation models)

Scenario             2030 FCF Yield    Implied Market Cap    Implied Share Price    4-Yr Annual Return (CAGR)    Key Assumptions / Drivers
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bull Case            1.5% Yield        $7.00 Trillion        $940                   16.4%                        High market premium for Azure AI software dominance & Copilot monetization.
Report Base Case     2.0% Yield        $5.25 Trillion        $705                   8.0%                         Morgan Stanley standard 2.0% hyperscaler yield benchmark.
Bear Case            3.0% Yield        $3.50 Trillion        $470                   -2.2%                        Higher required yield due to compressed margins or elevated capital cost.

(stock is trading at $495 today)

tecmo
...

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