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Author: weatherman   😊 😞
Number: of 48425 
Subject: jp morgan's macro renders verdict on doge
Date: 05/05/2025 9:53 PM
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of primary note, many high publicity events in MAGA world (tariffs another) is theater to distract from grift and lack of cohesive strategy. doge exists to feed the myth of gop fiscal conservatism, but meanwhile musk has his eye on a record-setting $1trillion DoD budget, and on receiving no-bid carve outs for spaceX, dancing robots, and anything else he can peddle.
specific cuts elsewhere by musk are to eliminate regulatory oversight of his many ventures.

status of doge, possibly final with musk as lead clown:

initial $2t in proposed spending cut :
So stupid only MAGA would believe it.

revised to $1t in proposed cuts :
So stupid, only a lifelong gop voter would believe it.

ok, lets drop it by ~10X. trivial now in scale, but legitimate for discussion :
~$160b in 'realized' cuts
nope. on top doing things like counting unawarded contracts, and irs cuts that result in net NEGATIVE $20b of uncollected taxes, doge is not counting high payments to continue mandated work by using temporary employees, while spending continues for months of severance to terminated federal workers.
some years on, i would not be surprised to see a net accounting loss >$100b, and net productivity loss much higher.

evaluation of doge by leading conservative think tanks :

* libertarian Cato Institute said DOGE is “just spinning their wheels, citing...overstated or fake savings...most frustrating is that we agree with their goals. But we’re watching them flail at achieving them”
• right-of-center American Enterprise Institute questions the DOGE approach of assuming that uncertain events are certain, then claiming maximum possible savings. e.g., DOGE estimated savings...for HR services that hadn’t even been negotiated; a George Washington University professor who studies Federal contracting described the approach as “garbage”
• from Manhattan Institute: "DOGE is not a serious exercise", with its analysts estimating that DOGE has only saved $5 billion to date, and that it will end up costing more than it saves.
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