No. of Recommendations: 7
If the Bill will improve all the things that proponents claim, then why on earth did they include a three year sunset or steadily declining caps on the number of shutdown days allowed?This is a compromise deal: a temporary change in laws in exchange for a temporary change in funding levels. Permanent policy changes are much more valuable than funding that needs to be renewed every year. Ukraine will need security assistance for years, and each year Congress can negotiate deals based around the needed funding. Permanent policy changes will not be traded for temporary funding. Make this year's deal and move on. There will be another deal next year. Or not. Probably not with this do-nothing Congress. They like the way things are. No changes needed.
Our southern border issue used to be folks coming for work from Mexico, not asylum-seekers looking to resettle from the Central Triangle and elsewhere.Between 2021 and 2023, the number of folks coming from Mexico was about the same (about 700k per year), but the number from Venezuela, Other, Colombia, and Cuba sharply increased. The number from Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador decreased.
The sanctions on Venezuela and Cuba have had effect. People will go where the jobs are, and the U.S. has plenty of jobs today.
When it sunsets, do we get our Ukraine money back?The U.S. has provided about $22B per year in security assistance to Ukraine in the 2 years since 2022. The U.S. Defense Budget is $766B. If Russia succeeds in Ukraine, Putin might continue to try to reassemble the U.S.S.R., with NATO countries next on his list. The next war might involve U.S. soldiers. Spending less than 3% of the Defense Budget to discourage Putin is money well spent. We don't get any of this back, it is just the cost of living in this world.
==== data ====
FY Nationwide Encounters
data from
https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/nationwide-enco... citizenship FY2021 pctFY2021 FY2022 FY2023 pctFY2023 change change/totalFY2021
total 1,956,519 100% 2,766,582 3,201,144 100% 1,244,625 64%
Mexico 674,739 34% 823,057 735,937 23% 61,198 3%
Venezuela 50,499 3% 189,520 334,914 10% 284,415 15%
Guatemala 284,291 15% 233,061 221,849 7% -62,442 -3%
Honduras 321,149 16% 214,975 216,028 7% -105,121 -5%
Other 57,357 3% 137,328 299,575 9% 242,218 12%
Colombia 10,495 1% 130,971 167,388 5% 156,893 8%
Cuba 39,303 2% 224,607 200,287 6% 160,984 8%
Ecuador 97,074 5% 24,936 117,487 4% 20,413 1%
Nicaragua 50,722 3% 164,600 138,729 4% 88,007 4%
Haiti 48,727 2% 56,596 163,781 5% 115,054 6%
Peru 5,177 0% 53,188 78,202 2% 73,025 4%
El Salvador 99,463 5% 97,797 62,846 2% -36,617 -2%
Russia 13,240 1% 36,271 57,163 2% 43,923 2%
not listed here 204,283 10% 379,675 406,958 13% 202,675 10%
==== links ====
The US Labor Market Explains Most of the Increase in Illegal Immigration, November 16, 2023
https://www.cato.org/blog/us-labor-market-explains... "From 2021 to 2023,
The three nationalities that saw the largest aggregate increases in migration:
Venezuela +217,393
“Other Countries” not specifically named in CBP’s data releases +155,007
Colombia +153,334
...
The three nationalities that saw the largest aggregate decreases in migration:
Honduras -105,638
Guatemala -62,950
El Salvador -37,175"
https://adamisacson.com/annual-cbp-migrant-encount..."migrants from Venezuela, Guatemala, Nicaragua and El Salvador are trying to enter the country. "Parts of the world, especially Latin America, haven't recovered from the pandemic and their economies have worsened and some governments have been dictatorial as of late.""
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2023/09...
