No. of Recommendations: 13
* 9/14 9/21 9/28 10/5/26
S&P 500 Index 7656.98 7650.50 7743.41 7722.72
Trailing 12 month PE 25.93 26.10 26.26 26.15
Trail Earnings yield 3.86% 3.83% 3.81% 3.82%
Forward 12 month PE 19.05 19.10 19.37 18.93
Fwd Earnings Yield 5.25% 5.24% 5.16% 5.28%
90 day tbill yield 4.07 4.14 4.24 4.19
10 year tbond yield 4.96% 5.01% 5.17% 5.28%
Arezi Ratio 1.05 1.08 1.11 1.10
Fed Ratio 0.94 0.96 1.00 1.00
The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.
The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.
The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 65%
stocks, 35% cash this week.
Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is above its 200DMA. - Bullish
We are in the May-Oct part of the year. - Bearish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is normal. - Bullish
A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 45%.
An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 77%.
Elan