Post #8357 by tecmo on the Non-US Stocks board

Investment Strategies / Non-US Stocks

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Another way of saying this is that Berkshire was hurt by zero/very low rates of the last 20 years+ and benefited recently from higher rates. But who the hell knows what the future rates are going to be? Its seems that markets are predicting virtually a 100% chance of the Fed cutting rates by 0.25% in September.

A 0.25% cut in September doesn't trend line out to 0% - my guess (prediction?) is that short term rates settle in the 4%-5% range with the 10Y slightly higher; based on inflation figures in the 3% range. We will probably get a cut of roughly 2% at most during the next recession (which is always just around the corner).

So basically, 2-3 rate cuts in the next 12 months or so (assuming no recession).

tecmo
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