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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing❤
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Author: mungofitch ✹🐝🐝🐝 SILVER
SHREWD   😊 😞
Number: of 4356 
Subject: Re: book recommendation
Date: 07/11/2025 4:11 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 8
With today's price of $713670 ($475.78 per B), today's smoothed line level is about $613570 and the ratio is about 1.163. Using that ratio, the formula fit from the graph suggests one might expect a forward two year return around -1.62%/year after inflation. The standard deviation of the ratio in the last 20 years has been 11.8% with mean (by construction) of 1.

PS, -1.6%/year doesn't sound so bad. The forecast on May 2 was -10.2%/year. Price goes down, likely forward return goes up. Magic!

Jim
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