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I'm sure some of you have heard of The Keys to the White House, a system developed by Allan Lichtman back in 1981 to predict the winners of presidential elections in the US. There are 13 items, called keys, to consider, each giving a true or false answer. With 5 or fewer false answers, the incumbent party's nominee is predicted to win. Six or more false answers and the challenging party's nominee is predicted to win. He has a pretty good track record since the system was developed, getting only one election wrong.

You can read all of the gory details at the wikipedia page here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_Whit...
Scroll down to just below the middle of the page where there is a big block of color. The current race is listed at the bottom of that block, with the prior races above that.

The bottom line is that with Biden as the nominee, his system predicts Biden as the winner. With someone other than Biden as the nominee, the system predicts that replacement will lose. As it stands now, four of the tests give false answers. With a replacement, two more tests turn false and Trump is the predicted winner.

I'm going to grant up front that there are multiple criticisms of this system - including some that would be familiar to those who have studied mechanical investing. But - to use mechanical investing terms - the post-discovery record is pretty good.

So here's yet another reason to stick with Biden. (Along with a bit of evidence that my half-eaten ham sandwich could beat Trump, but only if it were already the sitting president.)

--Peter

With a replacement, two more tests turn false

Which two? I only see the incumbent one switching. What's the second one?

What's the second one?

#2 - No primary contest.

Even if Biden anoints a replacement, there will still likely be a contest, as I'm sure some people will want someone other than the anointed one. Lichtman brought that up in a recent interview. The actual test for this one is the incumbent party nominee winning at least 2/3 of the delegates on the first ballot at the convention. So it's possible for a replacement to keep this true, but with a fairly open convention, that seems unlikely.

--Peter

#2 - No primary contest.

Even if Biden anoints a replacement, there will still likely be a contest, as I'm sure some people will want someone other than the anointed one. Lichtman brought that up in a recent interview. The actual test for this one is the incumbent party nominee winning at least 2/3 of the delegates on the first ballot at the convention. So it's possible for a replacement to keep this true, but with a fairly open convention, that seems unlikely.

Gotcha.

Isn't it likely that that one's already in failure? The 2/3 convention delegate threshold isn't itself what's significant - it's just a proxy measure for whether the party is united behind the incumbent heading into the convention. Given the circumstances, I think that's probably not likely to be the case.

Isn't it likely that that one's already in failure? The 2/3 convention delegate threshold isn't itself what's significant ...

Like any mechanical method, you can't go willy-nilly swapping your criteria. You'd need to back test to be sure the substitute works the same. I agree it's a measure of party unity, but the measure for this particular formula is the objective vote of delegates at the convention. Your suggested replacement is a more subjective measure. Coming from a more scientific background, Lichtman was looking for objective measures to use in his model. The more objective you can make it, the more you are not going to be blown around by the fickle winds of emotion. (As in the change from 3 pm on June 27 to 11 pm on the same day.)

But even if that particular measure is wrong this time, that would be the 5th false answer and the model would still predict Biden as the winner if he continued to run. Replace him, and you're now at 6 false answers and the model predicts Trump as the winner.

--Peter

One thing I wanted to point out is that this prediction model doesn't look at anything that is making the headlines today. Debates don't mater. Specific policies don't matter, although making some policy change while the incumbent party is in the White House is important. Nothing about the challenger matters except their charisma.

What does matter are things that hit close to home for everyone. A good economy. Relative peace at home.

So I prefer to look past all of the current angst and continue to support Biden. Because in spite of all the wailing and gnashing of teeth, that is the best way to beat Trump in November.

--Peter

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