price has no economic meaning within rounding error

If price where a pure finance number I would agree that that’s the way it should be.

But running some performance evaluations over the last 10 years shows that the price of a stock does actually say something about it’s history and a can be used as a predictor. This doesn’t work at all for the large closely monitored SP500 type stocks.

But as illogically as it seems it does work for the mid and small caps and even for the NAS 100. A backtest of the upper 10% of NAS 100 by price alone had a return of 17.6% the lower 10% a return of 6%.

For the lower 2000 out of the top 3000 market cap the top 10% have a 3% higher return and the bottom 10% a -13% return!

The above is based on annualized returns with a 4 week trading cycle and no friction.

Mechanical Investing FAQ

---

Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.