If the search moat is truly disappearing, such as by non-Gemini LLMs taking up a greater share of searches that would have previously been keyword searches, and in an ad-enhancing way, there's no reason to think 5% revenue growth is a conservative assumption. Search-related revenues may very well decline, as a better service becomes available. The "mind share" ChatGPT now occupies at least provides the seed for the threat to materialize.

The company has some protection against this by its very broad user base (Youtube, Gmail, Android, Maps, etc.) and its introduction of Gemini throughout most of these products (I agree its unlike Yahoo here), but both revenues and profits can decline. Why not? Buyers will very quickly flock to a better advertiser if that happens.

Alphabet is my biggest position, but the above is a real risk to me. And it requires smart capital allocation to solve it.

Alphabet FAQ

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