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Back on topic.
Oil flows in the last week of September
exceeded pre-war. The picture gets better once you realize that Iran is contributing zero oil:
iranintl.com: Iran oil exports vanish as regional flows surpass prewar levelsData from commodities intelligence firm Kpler shows that regional crude exports reached their highest level since the war began in late February.
Average crude exports stood at around 16.5 million barrels per day in September, but the seven-day average rose to around 19.5 million barrels per day in the final week of the month, surpassing the pre-war level of approximately 17 million barrels per day.
By contrast, Iran has not loaded any new oil at its terminals since mid-August, while no Iranian oil cargo has crossed the US blockade line since mid-July. Data from tanker-tracking firm TankerTrackers also points to a halt in new Iranian crude shipments.Will oil prices continue to fall? Yes.
How soon will we see it at the gas pump? As soon as refineries are all topped up with oil and can start producing gas at the rate they were before.
Will oil prices fall to pre-war levels? Likely not that far. There's still a risk premium built into the costing.
