No. of Recommendations: 3
"This 2013 article compares returns versus various metrics"
John Hussman discusses various forecasting metrics in his Feb 2022 market commentary.
hussmanfunds.com: Headed For The Tail - Hussman FundsHis preferred metric predicts a 12-year nominal, annualized return for the S&P 500 of about -2%. P/S also predicts about -2%.
Whatever metric we use, market cap/GDP, P/S, nonfinancial market cap/gross value added or whatever, the forecast for the return of the S&P 500 over the next 10-2 years is dim, lower than Treasuries. The primary reason is not low sales or earnings growth, or declining margins, but rather high valuation. Fortunately, value stocks, including Berkshire Hathaway, tend to outperform the S&P 500 during periods when the return of the S&P is low, typically by about 3 percentage points.
