No. of Recommendations: 4
They think their strategic calculus says that it's great for them to buy cheapo Russian oil, refine it and sell the gas to Europe at great profit.
Which is what Orban has been doing (Hungary has escalated their Russian imports to beyond pre-invasion levels and is pocketing the profits), yet Trump seems to think it terrible that Ukraine might do something about it. Which makes it very hard for India to genuinely believe that the secondary sanctions imposed on them (not the EU) for buying Russian oil are actually about buying Russian oil, but rather the fig leaf that Trump is using to justify having the tariffs he wants anyway. Like the terrible fentanyl situation over the Canadian border. If India doesn't credibly believe the tariffs are actually motivated by their oil purchases, rather than just the tariffs Trump wants to impose because they couldn't reach a trade deal, then they're not likely to respond to them by reducing their oil purchases. Because if that's not the reason for the tariffs, it won't get them released.
So what incentives can we put to them that makes them...rethink...that strategic calculus? Incentives can be positive or negative.
I think you would start by not only avoiding the secondary sanctions but removing the "reciprocal" (hah!) tariff as well. Treat India like an ally and partner, not a treacherously unfair economic competitor stealing America's money. Because obviously the negative incentive won't work if India thinks they'll be hit with that negative incentive no matter what they do, and if they think they can't trust Trump not to impose it anyway even if they do what he says they want.
