Microsoft Earnings are out, here is a quick assessment

Note: I use a very simple forecasting formula to "guess" at future earnings (and sales) and future multiples to try and get a range of potential stock prices 12 months out. In the "broken clocks", the guesses were very close this quarter.

Revenue  : $69.63B   ($69.10)
Earnings : $ 3.23    ($3.22 / share)

cnbc.com - Microsoft msft q2 earnings report

Using my valuation model, fair price for the stock would be around $390 / share (vs. the $442 at close and the $418 after hours).

Looking forward 12 months or so, we might see Revenues (TTM) of $300B and earnings of
$13.75. Using some multiples of that have been historically in range we get

PE @ 28x = $385
PE @ 30x = $412
PE @ 33x = $453
PS @  9x = $361
PS @ 10x = $401
PS @ 11x = $441

So a range of roughly $360 - $450, the mid point of these would be $405 which is what I would use for any purchase decisions (anything below that would be a buy signal, anything over $450 would be a sell signal).

tecmo
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