I hate to break this to you, but the Fed model has gone the way of the dodo bird. It is extinct and useless.

Quoting from Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fed_model
Lack of predictive power
* The analysis shows that the Fed model has no power to forecast long term stock returns
* In 2018, Ned Davis Research ran a test of the Fed model's ability to predict subsequent 10-year returns using data from the previous 75 years. Davis found that "it was basically worthless"
* In April 2014, Dr. Yardeni wrote of his Fed model: "[1997] was just about when the model stopped working as a useful investment tool. "


An even better debunking is from 2003, Clifford Asness' article "Fight the Fed Model", which pointed out that it didn't even work *IN* sample - there was only a specific range of dates that it ever looked plausible, it never worked before or since. I recommend finding and reading that article, it has some interesting insights. The biggest is simply that the prevailing interest rates at the time you buy stocks aren't a predictor of the multi-year forward stock returns, but that (duh) the valuation level of stocks at purchase time is an excellent predictor. But there is other great stuff in there, like an analysis showing that the trajectory of stock profits is almost perfectly adjusted for inflation. Which makes some sense: on average, if all parts and labour and sales prices all go up 10%, profits will go up 10% as well.

Jim

Mechanical Investing FAQ

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