On the subject of US inflation, the metric I watch is the "MCT Inflation" figure: "Multivariate Core Trend" inflation, what I think of as monetary inflation as opposed to price variability inflation.
newyorkfed.org: Multivariate Core Trend Inflation

This metric is based on the notion that the change in prices for any good is best thought of as a mixture of an across-the-board common inflation factor for the period across all goods, plus a factor specific to that product or service. So, for 100 categories of things, you have 101 inflation figures: one for each good, and one to rule them all. MCT is the common factor, which can be thought of as the amount by which a dollar has lost general purpose purchasing power, rather than the movement in the price of any single thing, or the change in a basket which contained one thing that changed a lot.

The Fed finds some use for this because it tends to be pretty smooth and consistent, so it tends to predict itself (and therefore general inflation) better than headline or core CPI or PPI figures. That's the "T" in the name, as it captures the trend. I use it because, not being in the US, I'm interested in whether the US dollar is holding its value, not whether it costs more or less for someone in Dubuque to fill up their tank or buy a dozen eggs, which are mostly a product-specific issues.

I mention all this because the latest published figure is MCT inflation of 2.67% in the year to July. Rather surprisingly this is the lowest monthly figure since January 2021, just two months into the beginning of the inflation upsurge.

The main categories going into all the measurements are goods, services, and housing. Housing is not contributing and hasn't really for the last year and a half. Goods and services are roughly tied in their contribution to the latest 2.67%, and both have been falling for at least 3 months now.

Of course, it's possible that it won't stay low. There is one thing that correlates with future moves: money. I note that Divisia M3, my preferred money supply metric, has been slowly accelerating for a while now. After the pandemic, the spike in Divisia M3 predicted the inflation spike with 8 months advance, so it's not necessarily true that money supply has no meaning for inflation in the modern world. Two years ago Divisia was rising at 2.04%. Four years ago it was rising at 1.73%, pretty similar. But the latest print, based on data to June, is 6.83%. The year-on-year figures have been very slowly rising since Feb 2024. There are many moving parts to monetary inflation, but this would seem to be a slight upward pressure in the mix.

Possible bottom line speculation from those two observations: US monetary inflation, in the sense of what a dollar is actually worth, is probably lower than you thought lately. But that might not last...it might be rising a little faster within a year.

Jim