"I haven't calculated it. But using a pretty typical extrapolation, and a conservative extrapolation, I'd get the following per B share:"

This is what I usually do, too... just assume average growth. It works quite well, as BV growth has been remarkably constant since 2000 (least squares growth of 10.6%/yr with r^2 of 0.985). Growth was remarkably constant before 2000 as well, although at twice the growth rate of post 2000 (1981-2000 growth of 26.5%/yr with r^2 of 0.985), so we have to be watchful of another kink in the growth curve.

We also have to be watchful of transitory shocks such as the financial crisis of 2008 or the covid pandemic of 2020. I'm concerned that we may be experiencing another shock right now. GDP growth is slowing, and is forecast to be negative in 2025 according to the Fed's GDPNow model. Also the market price of the equity portfolio is falling, so both Berkshire's businesses and investments are under pressure. I don't want to say that the sky is falling, but Q1 BV growth may have been sub-par, and Q2 BV growth may be negative.

Chicken Little

Berkshire Hathaway FAQ

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