No. of Recommendations: 6
Interesting view of how the Chinese should favor Tump.
Beijing knows that there is no hope for an improvement in its ties with Washington, whether under Trump, Biden, or any other U.S. president. From the perspective of Beijing’s long game vis-à-vis the West, Trump’s return to the White House may well turn out to be in China’s favor, at least in the economic field. Here are five reasons why.
1. Trump would increase divisions between the United States and Europe.“I think the European Union is a foe, what they do to us in trade.” (Trump in July 2018)
Cementing distrust between the United States and the Europe is the best way to prevent the emergence of trans-Atlantic policies detrimental to Chinese interests, such as joint export controls... If elected, Trump would probably be unable to resist the urge to restart trade wars with Europe—for instance, by making good on his pledge to impose a 10 percent tariff across the board. A trade fight, in turn, would likely halt U.S.-EU cooperation on measures that could hurt Chinese interests. Of course, Trump’s recent promise to impose a minimum 60 percent tariff on Chinese imports would also be painful for Beijing. But in the grand scheme of things, Beijing may assume that paying such a price is worth it if the prize is a schism between the United States and the EU.
2. Trump could make a U-turn on sanctions against Russia.“They have sanctions on Russia—let’s see if we can make some good deals with Russia.” (January 2017)
worries that Washington could impose secondary sanctions on Moscow, forcing companies around the world to choose between their U.S. and Russian customers. For most Chinese firms, sticking to the U.S. market would be a no-brainer in such a scenario. As a result, Chinese companies have little interest in developing relationships with Russian businesses that they might need to abandon soon. If Trump lifts sanctions on Moscow, this problem would be solved for Chinese firms.
3. Trump would give a boost to China’s push for alternative financial mechanisms.“China wants to replace [the U.S. dollar] with the yuan, and it was unthinkable with us. Unthinkable. Would never have happened. Now people are thinking about it.” (August 2023)
A second Trump presidency could change this reasoning. The case of Russian aluminum producer Rusal in 2018 illustrates why: After slapping sanctions on the company without any warning, the Trump administration had to backtrack and lift the sanctions in a rush after realizing that the measures had massive global ripple effects.
The moral of the story was clear: Under Trump, anything can happen—and anyone can fall under sanctions without warning. As a result, many countries would seek to preemptively shield themselves from such measures if Trump were back in the White House. At this stage, the best way to do so is to switch to Beijing’s alternative financial mechanisms. That would be another win for China.
4. A Trump win would increase China’s domination for critical materials sourcing from emerging countries.“Why are we having all these people from shithole countries coming here?” (January 2018)
A second Trump presidency would not help to convince developing economies—which Trump once collectively disparaged as “shithole countries”—to partner with Washington for the supply of critical raw materials. Many mineral-rich states would fear that promises from Trump have little value, as his sudden withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal showed in 2018.
Besides, Trump’s disdain for developing economies, likely curbs on immigration, and incendiary rhetoric about Islam will not exactly break the ice with African, Southeast Asian, or South American leaders. China would rejoice and continue to advance its interests in emerging economies by portraying itself as the adult in the room—a reliable partner that does not mix business and politics.
5. China would benefit from U.S. export controls on clean tech.“The concept of global warming was created by China in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive.” (November 2012)
So far, clean tech has been spared from U.S. export controls, but a Trump presidency would probably change this... (Republicans have vowed to change this and apply controls to a broader range ) In the long term, Chinese businesses could even benefit from such controls. Deprived of the world’s largest markets, U.S. firms would have fewer revenues and be forced to slash research and development budgets.
https://archive.is/20240207174442/https://foreignp... 