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The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
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Author: rrr12345 ⎊  😊 😞
Number: of 22352 
Subject: Re: Asset allocation
Date: 10/01/26 6:50 PM
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One reasonable answer, I think, comes from the Kelly-type analysis analysis that I cited a few years ago. I don't have the citation at hand, but the conclusion was that the optimal asset allocation depended on the difference between the expected return of stocks and the expected return of T-Bills, as follows:

expected difference between stocks and T-Bill returns --> optimal stock allocation

4 percentage points --> 100% stocks
3 percentage points --> 75% stocks
2 percentage points --> 50% stocks
1 percentage point --> 25% stocks
0 percentage points --> 0% stocks

Right now the expected 12-year nominal return of stocks is about -2%, per Hussman, and 3-month T-Bills are yielding 4%, so if this Kelly analysis is right and this stock forecast is right, then the optimal allocation to stocks is 0%. Historically stocks have returned 9% since 1871, and T-Bills have averaged about a 6% yield, so the optimal allocation to stocks over time has averaged close to 100%.
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This community has written 21,861 posts about Berkshire Hathaway. The article-length ones it recommended most:
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Summary of 2Q 2026 · 55 recs · 2026
3Q Summary · 53 recs · 2024
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