Inflation is caused by more money chasing fewer goods, not by price increases on a particular subset of goods.

If tariffs are viewed as a form of tax, longer term, they will either be disinflationary or have a neutral effect.


If somehow tariffs lead to an increase in the money supply and/or in the velocity of money, they may have an inflationary effect.

Does imposing additional taxes in the form of Trump's tariffs increase the money supply overall, or increase the velocity of money? Hard to see how that would be so.

Taxes withdraw money from consumers. Overall, the tariffs mean consumers will have less money to spend. By definition, that should have a deflationary effect--unless whatever the government does with that money increases the overall money supply and/or the velocity of money, which would be inflationary.

If the tariffs collected mean the government has to print less money/goes into less debt than it would have absent the tariffs, it's hard to see how they could be inflationary.