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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝 GOLD
SHREWD
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Number: of 84350 
Subject: Re: Fund, MEWD
Date: 08/15/26 10:38 AM
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Median P/E (which for an equal weight is really the "average" you want) is about 4.24%, equating to a P/E of 23.6. That's using trailing as-reported EPS. More expensive than I expected, but that's 2026 for you.

One cool thing about medians: if you only sample a subset to estimate a median among a set of values most of which follow a Gaussian distribution, the median converges *remarkably* quickly with the sample size, as long as the samples are truly random. In this case the estimate among 396 firms was getting usable (withing half a percent of EY) after 15-20 samples, and pretty darned stable by N=30. That's so few that I might look up the forward earnings estimates for 30 to see what that looks like.

A speculation for retirement accounts:
Imagine any reasonably diversified equally weighted equity portfolio. Calculate the median earnings yield for each of the last 3 years, and find N = the median among those 3 population-median figures. Speculation: SWR >= N, for an immortal retiree.
A slightly fancier description: prices change. So convert each of the 3 historical median earnings yields to earnings *levels* in euros based on the value of the portfolio at the time. Then turn those back into earnings yields by dividing by the current value of the portfolio. If there was a bear market last year the earnings *yield* was high but the earnings probably weren't. e.g., if MEWD has a median earnings yield of 4.24% and the price is 73.91 euros, then the current trailing earnings for practical purposes are €3.13.

Jim
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