Post #27688 by albaby1 on the US Policy board

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NYT reports that it is likely to hit about 20 miles south of Tampa. Also, intensity may drop to Cat3. Currently Cat4.

Yes, that seems right. Looks like it's going to make landfall at around Sarasota, and the forecasts have been pretty consistent in suggesting a storm right at that Cat3/Cat4 boundary. NOAA's done an amazing job forecasting this one.

Twenty miles, though, is still a pretty close hit for Tampa. The eye of Milton's about 25 miles wide - so they're still going to get some serious wind.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/sarasota/34237/w...

But at least it's now certain that the point of landfall will be south of the mouth of Tampa Bay, which is good news for the Tampa area. Depending on how it hits, and what the rainfall is like, it is entirely possible that Tampa Bay will entirely empty. Milton could drain it entirely. Dry land.

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