No. of Recommendations: 2
While states are in charge of elections in theory, there have been more than one instance where the federal government steps in and dictates what states can and can’t do in elections.
Sure. There are limited areas where the federal government does get to pass laws that govern state elections. But we're not in that arena. In this hypothetical, Trump would be asking elections officials to ignore the federal Constitution. And the personnel that run the elections (like state Secretaries of State) aren't part of the federal government, and don't work for Trump. Which makes it much, much harder for a President to try to get elections officials to ignore the law in the U.S. than in almost any other country.
That obstacle is enormous, because you have a collective action problem. No individual Secretary of State can deliver sufficient ballot access - Trump would need probably thirty separate states to ignore the unambiguous language of the 22nd Amendment. So each one of them is being asked to make a career-threatening choice to break the law and violate the Constitution, with no assurance that it will actually work. If all of them don't all independently do it, or Trump loses the election anyway, that means no President Trump in the WH in 2029. Ridiculously hard to pull that off - Trump doesn't have the skill to do it, few in the party have any incentive to do it for him, and all of those folks are savvy enough not to.
Yes, Trump can influence state governments. But while that might translate into getting them to change their drop-box policies or shift how they purge voter rolls (politically charged choices but ultimately legal ones), getting them to tear up the Constitution is a much heavier lift.
And there are much easier, and less risky, ways to get protection from criminal prosecution. Again, he can have Vance pardon him from all his federal crimes. And if he's got so much pull in Georgia that he could get them to let him on the ballot for a third term, then he's got enough pull to just eliminate his criminal jeopardy. Get the Board of Pardons to issue him a pardon. Get the legislature to pass a law that makes his charges go away (laws that reduce criminal liability or punishments are not barred by the Ex Post Facto Clause).
Again, these concerns seem absurd to me. It would be close to impossible for even a savvy and skilled political mastermind to be able to get elected to a third term in the U.S., if any were inclined to give it a go - and Trump is not one of those things. And unlike the 2020 election challenges, most Republicans don't have anywhere near the same incentives to let Trump run for a third term - most Republicans would have been better off with a Republican instead of a Democrat taking office after the 2020 elections, but very few Republicans are themselves better off if Trump gets to run for a third term.
I want Harris to win - but not in the slightest because I fear that Trump won't leave office in 2029. It's because of what he would do between 2025 and 2029.
